Ecological time series study on mortality in skin cancer in Southern of Brazil

Authors

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.5902/2179460X40516

Keywords:

ARIMA, Modelo Box-Jenkis, Skin Neoplasms

Abstract

The aim of this study was to analyze the mortality trend and to adjust a time series model for neoplastic skin diseases, from 1996 to 2012, in southern Brazil. To do so, conduct an ecological time series study using quarterly death data. The ARIMA Model (4,1,0) was the one that had the best fit for the date adopted and validated with date from 2013. It can be seen in this study that there is an increase in the number of deaths from skin cancer over time, How Which can be approved by the given model, and which can be helpful in planning public policies for intervention and / or prevention of skin cancer among the population of Southern Brazil.

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Author Biographies

Vinicius Pinheiro Nunes, Universidade Federal de Santa Maria

Graduado em Estatística pela Universidade Federal de Santa Maria, Especialista em Estatistica e Modelagem Quantitativa pela Universidade Federal de Santa Maria e Mestre em Modelagem Computacional pela Universidade Federal do Rio Grande

Angela Isabel dos Santos Dullius, Universidade Federal de Santa Maria

Graduada em Odontologia, Especializada em Dentística Restauradora , Mestrado profissional em Dentística e Doutorado em Odontologia - ênfase Epidemiologia.  Graduada em Matemática Licenciatura Plena com Habilitação em Física Licenciatura, Mestre em Métodos Quantitativos, Mestre em Engenharia de Produção e Especialista em Estatística Aplicada

Vanessa Siqueira Peres da Silva, Universidade Federal de Santa Maria

Doutora e Mestre em Estatística e Experimentação Agropecuária pela Universidade Federal de Lavras (UFLA). Possui graduação em Matemática pela Universidade Federal de Uberlândia

Michael Gonçalves da Silva, Universidade Federal de Santa Maria

Graduado em Ciências Econômicas, Mestrado em Desenvolvimento Econômico e Doutor em Economia Aplicada pela Universidade Federal de Uberlândia (UFU)

Angela Pellegrin Ansuj, Universidade Federal de Santa Maria

Graduada em Ciências Contábeis pela Universidade Federal de Santa Maria, Licenciada em Estatística, Organização e Técnicas Comerciais e Contabilidade Geral pela Universidade Federal de Santa Maria, Mestre em Engenharia de Produção pela Universidade Federal de Santa Maria e Doutora em Engenharia de Produção pela Universidade Federal de Santa Maria

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Published

2020-12-29

How to Cite

Nunes, V. P., Dullius, A. I. dos S., Silva, V. S. P. da, Silva, M. G. da, & Ansuj, A. P. (2020). Ecological time series study on mortality in skin cancer in Southern of Brazil. Ciência E Natura, 42, e46. https://doi.org/10.5902/2179460X40516

Issue

Vol. 42 (2020): Edição especial de aniversário 10 ANOS - bacharelado e 30 - especialização em estatística

Section

10 anos estatística bacharelado

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