Evolução dos óbitos por neoplasias malignas de pele nas regiões sul e sudeste do brasil: aplicação da metodologia de box-jenkins
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https://doi.org/10.5902/2179460X40191Keywords:
Neoplasias malignas de pele. Séries temporais. Metodologia de Box-Jenkins.Abstract
Nos conjuntos de dados cujas observações encontram-se ordenadas em instantes de tempo, indica-se a análise de séries temporais. Técnica que permite identificar padrões de sazonalidade, tendência, ciclos e mudanças de nível, sendo possível gerar modelos explicativos capazes de descrever o comportamento da sequência de observações, obtendo previsões acerca da série analisada. Esta pesquisa aplicou a metodologia de Box- Jenkins nas séries de óbitos por neoplasias malignas de pele entre o período de 1996 e 2014, ocorridos nas regiões Sul e Sudeste do Brasil, afim de identificar padrões, gerar modelos explicativos e obter previsões. Evidenciaram-se algumas características como presença de tendência crescente, ausência de sazonalidade e comportamento não estacionário nas séries de óbitos. A metodologia de Box-Jenkins demonstrou boa qualidade de predição para as séries da região Sul e Sudeste as quais apresentaram, os modelos ARIMA (4,1,0) com constante e ARIMA (0,1,1) com constante como modelos melhores ajustados aos dados. Concluiu-se que os óbitos por neoplasias malignas de pele nas regiões Sul foram explicados apenas por componentes AR e a região Sudeste por componentes MA, ambas com componente de integração.
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