Temporal dynamics of dengue fever in Rio Grande do Sul: a ten-year analysis of incidence and basic reproduction number (2015–2025)

Authors

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.5902/2179460X95095

Keywords:

Dengue incidence, Basic reproduction number, Epidemiological data analysis, Applied mathematics

Abstract

Dengue fever is one of the main arboviral diseases of public health importance, with a wide global distribution and increasing incidence in historically less affected regions. In Brazil, climate change, accelerated urbanization, and socioeconomic factors have contributed to the intensification and expansion of the disease. In this context, the present study analyzes the trends and patterns of dengue fever in the state of Rio Grande do Sul over a ten-year period, between 2015 and 2025. Official data from the Ministry of Health were used to calculate incidence rates and to analyze the temporal distribution of cases by epidemiological week. In addition, the basic reproduction number R0 was estimated for years with well-defined epidemic growth, based on the initial exponential growth rate of the case curve, considering epidemiological parameters extracted from the literature. The results show a consistent seasonal pattern, with recurring peaks between epidemiological weeks 10 and 20, as well as a significant increase in the disease burden in recent years, especially in 2022, 2024, and 2025. Estimates of R0 ranged from approximately 2.2 to 4.8, values consistent with those reported in previous studies conducted in different regions of Brazil. The findings indicate a change in the epidemiological scenario of dengue fever in Rio Grande do Sul, reinforcing the need for more effective surveillance and control strategies adapted to the new epidemiological reality of the state.

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Author Biographies

Aléxia Rodrigues de Faria, UFPel - Universidade Federal de Pelotas

She holds a Master’s degree in Mathematical Modeling from the Graduate Program in Mathematical Modeling at the Federal University of Pelotas.

Glênio Aguiar Gonçalves, UFPel - Universidade Federal de Pelotas

He holds a Bachelor’s degree in Physics from the Federal University of Rio Grande do Sul (UFRGS), as well as a Master’s and PhD in Mechanical Engineering from the same institution, and completed a postdoctoral fellowship at UFRGS.

Daniela Buske, UFPel - Universidade Federal de Pelotas

She holds a Bachelor’s degree in Mathematics Education from the Federal University of Santa Maria, and a Master’s and PhD in Mechanical Engineering from the Federal University of Rio Grande do Sul, with a focus on Transport Phenomena and Pollutant Dispersion.

Angelita dos Reis Gomes, UFPel - Universidade Federal de Pelotas

She is a veterinarian graduated from the Federal University of Santa Maria and holds a PhD in Veterinary Sciences (Animal Health) from the Federal University of Pelotas.

Ana Maria Bersch Domingues, Universidade Federal de Pelotas

She completed her secondary education at Colégio Franciscano Nossa Senhora Aparecida (Canguçu, RS, Brazil) and holds a Bachelor’s degree in Mathematics Education from the Federal University of Pelotas (UFPel).

Régis Sperotto de Quadros, UFPel - Universidade Federal de Pelotas

He holds a Bachelor’s degree in Mathematics from the University of Passo Fundo, a Master’s degree in Applied Mathematics from the Federal University of Rio Grande do Sul, and a PhD in Applied Mathematics from the Technische Universität Darmstadt, Germany.

Mateus Barcellos da Silva, UFPel - Universidade Federal de Pelotas

He holds a Bachelor’s degree in Physics from the Federal University of Rio Grande, a Master’s degree in Physics from the Federal University of Pelotas, and is currently a PhD candidate in Mathematical Modeling at the Federal University of Pelotas.

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Published

2026-05-29

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Vol. 48 (2026): Publicação contínua

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Applied Mathematics

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