Immunological memory improves the long-term cross-immunity: An influenza case study

Authors

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.5902/2179460X73999

Keywords:

Fractional dynamics, SIRC, Immunological memory

Abstract

In this contribution, we investigate the effects of the immunological memory in the population against the strain mutation of a disease, assuming that this memory is enhanced by the dynamics that follow a multi-order fractional SIRC model. We use weekly infection data on Influenza H1N1 in the state of Rio Grande do Sul, reported in the year of 2010, as the guide for our simulations and parameter choices. The simulated results suggest that the best scenarios, regarding the Influenza H1N1 data fit and that have a long-term prevention of reinfection for mutated strains of a circulating disease is the one in which the compartment of the population has a distinct level of immunological memory. Hence, any immunization strategy should be applied as early as possible, allowing the individual to acquire immunological memory before the strain can undergo mutations.

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Author Biographies

Adriano De Cezaro, Federal University of Rio Grande

He holds a Ph.D. in Mathematics from IMPA in 2010 and is currently a professor at IMEF-FURG. He has an interest in applied mathematics problems, including inverse problems and epidemiological modeling.

 

Ana Carla Ferreira Nicola Gomes, Federal University of Rio Grande

She is a Ph.D. candidate in the Computational Modeling program at FURG. She has an interest in mathematical modeling of problems in epidemiology.

Joice Chaves Marques, Federal University of Rio Grande

She obtained her Ph.D. in Mathematics from UFRGS in 2019 and is currently a professor at IMEF-FURG. She has an interest in applied mathematics problems, including epidemiological models.

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Published

2023-12-01

How to Cite

De Cezaro, A., Gomes, A. C. F. N., & Marques, J. C. (2023). Immunological memory improves the long-term cross-immunity: An influenza case study. Ciência E Natura, 45(esp. 3), e73999. https://doi.org/10.5902/2179460X73999

Issue

Vol. 45 No. esp. 3 (2023): ENMC/ECTM/MCSul/SEMENGO

Section

Special Edition

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