Análise da Pandemia de COVID-19 em Pelotas
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5902/2179460X66994Keywords:
COVID-19, Modelos epidemiológicos, Modelagem matemáticaAbstract
Neste trabalho apresenta-se uma análise da situação dos casos de contaminação da população pelo virus SARS-CoV-2, durante a pandemia de COVID-19, na cidade de Pelotas, no sul do Rio Grande do Sul.Utilizando um modelo matemático do tipo compartimentado simples e determinístico, apresenta-se uma projeção do número de casos até o final do ano de 2020, considerando 3 diferentes cenários. A evolução da pandemia considerando curvas de casos acumulados, recuperados, ativos e óbitos; a ocupação dos leitos de UTI exclusivos COVID; casos e óbitos por semana epidemiológica e a variação do número efetivo de reprodução e do percentual de isolamento social em Pelotas, também será apresentado.
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References
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Kermack, W. and Mckendrick, A. Contributions to the matehmatical thoeory of epidemics-III. Further studies of the problem of endemicity. Bulletin of Mathematical Biology. 1991, V. 53, pg. 89-118.
Delamater, P. L., Street, E. J., Leslie, T. F., Yang, Y. T. and Jacobsen, K. H. Complexity of the basic reproduction number (R0).American Association for the advancement of Science. 2019, V.25, pg. 1-4.
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- 2022-07-14 (2)
- 2021-11-08 (1)
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