Monthly rainfall forecast study in southeastern Brazil using multi-layer perceptron (MLP) neural networks

Authors

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.5902/2179460X45220

Keywords:

Neural network, Time series, Monthly Rainfall

Abstract

This work uses the MLP neural network technique to make monthly rainfall forecast estimates for Guarulhos airport in southeastern Brazil using a time series of approximately 70 years. Neural network structures with two or more hidden layers showed a better result, minimizing the prediction error.

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Author Biographies

Cleber Souza Corrêa, Instituto de Aeronáutica e Espaço, São Jose dos Campos, SP

Graduated in  Meteorology from Pelotas Federal University, MSc in Remote Sensing from the Federal University of Rio Grande do Sul and doctorate in hydrological Resources from the Federal University of Rio Grande do Sul. 

Diogo Machado Custodio, Instituto de Aeronáutica e Espaço, São Jose dos Campos, SP

Graduated and Master of Science in Meteorology from the Federal University of Santa Maria. Currently, he is a researcher from Institute of Aeronautics and Space in São Jose dos Campos, on the following topics: Remote sensing, Atmospheric Electricity

Haroldo de Campos Velho, Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais, São Jose dos Campos, SP

Graduated in Chemical Engineering from the Pontifical Catholic University of Rio Grande do Sul, master's degree in Mechanical Engineering from the Federal University of Rio Grande do Sul and doctorate in Mechanical Engineering from the Federal University of Rio Grande do Sul

References

CORRÊA, C.S.; GUEDES, R.L.; CORRÊA, K.A.B. & PILAU, F.G.. Multidecadal Cycles Study in the Climate Indexes Series Using Wavelet Analysis in North/Northeast Brazil. Anuário do Instituto de Geociências – UFRJ. 42(1): 66-73. doi: 10.11137/2019_1_66_73, 2019.

CRONE, S.F.; KOURENTZES N. Feature selection for time series prediction – A combined filter and wrapper approach for neural networks. Neurocomputing, 73(10), 1923-1936, 2010.

HYNDMAN, R.J.; KOEHLER, A.B. Another look at measures of forecast accuracy. International Journal of Forecasting, 22(4), 679-688, 2006

HYNDMAN, R.J. & ATHANASOPOULOS, G. Optimally reconciling forecasts in a hierarchy. Foresight, vol. Fall 2014, no. 35, pp. 42 – 48, 2014.

KOURENTZES N.; BARROW, B.K., CRONE, S.F. Neural network ensemble operators for time series forecasting. Expert Systems with Applications, 41(9), 4235-4244, 2014.

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Published

2020-08-28

How to Cite

Corrêa, C. S., Custodio, D. M., & Velho, H. de C. (2020). Monthly rainfall forecast study in southeastern Brazil using multi-layer perceptron (MLP) neural networks. Ciência E Natura, 42, e4. https://doi.org/10.5902/2179460X45220

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