A compartmental mathematical model for the study of mpox in Brazil

Authors

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.5902/2179460X90628

Keywords:

Epidemiological model, SEIR, Mpox, Vaccine, Interdisciplinary

Abstract

This work presents the study of a SEIR-type epidemiological model to analyze mpox data in Brazil. The model considered is solved by the fourth-order and four-stage Runge-Kutta method and the curves of infected individuals over time are estimated. The model is validated with data from an epidemic outbreak that occurred in 1972 in Kosovo. Using data from the mpox virus outbreak in Brazil in 2022, it was found that the model simulation had the same behavior as the outbreak that occurred in Kosovo.

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Author Biographies

Luciana Rossato Piovesan, Universidade Federal de Pelotas

PhD in Engineering, with an emphasis on Transport Phenomena, from the Federal University of Rio Grande do Sul (2022).

Daniela Buske, Universidade Federal de Pelotas

Doctorate in Mechanical Engineering from the Federal University of Rio Grande do Sul (2004; 2008) in the area of ​​Pollutant Transport/Dispersion Phenomena and a post-doctorate from the Federal University of Rio Grande do Sul (2011) in the area of ​​Nuclear Engineering. 

Antonio Marcos de Oliveira dos Santos, Universidade Federal de Pelotas

PhD student in Computational Modeling at the Federal University of Rio Grande (FURG).

Alexandre Sacco de Athayde, Universidade Federal de Pelotas

He holds a bachelor's degree in Applied Mathematics from the Federal University of Rio Grande do Sul (2006), a master's degree in applied mathematics and a doctorate in mechanical engineering from the same university. 

Glênio Aguiar Gonçalves, Universidade Federal de Pelotas

PhD in Mechanical Engineering from the Federal University of Rio Grande do Sul (2003) and a post-doctorate from UFRGS (2008). 

Régis Sperotto de Quadros, Universidade Federal de Pelotas

PhD in Applied Mathematics from the Technische Universität Darmstadt in Germany (2009) and a post-doctorate in Nuclear Energy from the Federal University of Rio Grande do Sul (2014).

References

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Published

2025-02-24

How to Cite

Piovesan, L. R., Buske, D., Santos, A. M. de O. dos, Athayde, A. S. de, Gonçalves, G. A., & Quadros, R. S. de. (2025). A compartmental mathematical model for the study of mpox in Brazil. Ciência E Natura, 47(esp. 1), e90628. https://doi.org/10.5902/2179460X90628

Issue

Section

IV Jornada de Matematica e Matematica aplicada UFSM

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