Application of SARIMAX model to model and forecast the concentration of inhalable particulate matter, in Espírito Santo, Brazil
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5902/2179460X63466Keywords:
PM10, SARIMAX, Meteorological variables, Air pollutionAbstract
This work aimed to model and forecast the average daily concentration of inhalable particulate matter (PM10) using the SARIMAX model, in the Greater Vitória Region (RGV), ES, Brazil, for the period from January 1st, 2008 to December 31th, 2018. For this, time series of PM10 concentration and meteorological parameters wind speed (V), relative humidity (U), precipitation (PP), temperature (T), solar radiation (I) and atmospheric pressure (P) were considered. These parameters were obtained from the State Environmental Institute (IEMA), being chosen the Laranjeiras, Carapina, Jardim Camburi, Enseada do Suá, Vitória (Centro), Ibes and Vila Capixaba stations to the study of prediction and forecasting. According to performance indicators, SARIMAX models, for most seasons, have been presented as good models for making predictions and forecasts of air quality in the localities. Regarding the prediction of regular air quality events, in general, the SARIMAX models stood out when compared to the SARIMA and ARMA models. Among the meteorological variables evaluated, V, U, PP and T stand out as predictor variables of PM10 concentrations and assumed a decisive role in improving the performance of the prediction models.
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