Previsão de Precipitação e Temperatura em Santa Maria por Meio de um Modelo Estatístico

Adriano Mendonça Souza, Roberta Georgen, Simone Erotildes Teleginski Ferraz

Abstract


The ability of forecasting the meteorological variablecharacteristics have been a goal in several studies for a long time. Manymethods were and have been used in the elaboration of climate forecasting,and they have been made by dynamic and statistic models. At this researchthe characteristics of temperature and precipitation series will be analyzedin the central region of Rio Grande do Sul and, a statistical model will beproposed by the use of using the Box & Jenkins methodology. For theprecipitation series the used data were the ones accumulated in the monthand, for the temperature series the used data were the month average, fromJanuary 1970 to December 2006. The models suggested were SARIMA(0,0,0)(0,1,1)12 to represent the precipitation and SARIMA (1,0,0)(0,1,1)12to the temperature. The models proposed were able to show the temperatureand precipitation behaviors and will be useful for future decisions.



Copyright (c)



Creative Commons License

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

 

DEAR AUTHORS,

PLEASE, CHECK CAREFULLY BEFORE YOUR SUBMISSION:

1. IF ALL AUTHORS "METADATA" (ORCID, LINK TO LATTES, SHORT BIOGRAPHY, AFFILIATION) WERE ADDED,

2. THE CORRECT IDIOM YOUR SECTION,

3 IF THE HIGHLIGHTS WERE ADDED,

4. IF THE GRAPHIC ABSTRACTS WAS ADDED,

5. IF THE REVIEWERS INDICATION WAS DONE,

6. IF THE REFERENCES FORMAT ARE CORRECT(ABNT)

7. IF THE RESOLUTION YOUR FIGURES (600 DPI) ARE SUITABLE

8.  IF THE STATEMENT BY THE ETHICS COMMITTEE (IF IT INVOLVES HUMANS) WAS ADDED;

9. IF THE DECLARATION OF ORIGINALITY WAS ADDED.

10. IF THE TEXT IS ORIGINAL. IF THE IDEA HAS ALREADY BEEN REGISTERED IN SUMMARY FORM, OR PUBLISHED IN CONGRESS ANNUALS, PLEASE INFORM THE EDITOR.