Previsão de Precipitação e Temperatura em Santa Maria por Meio de um Modelo Estatístico
Abstract
The ability of forecasting the meteorological variablecharacteristics have been a goal in several studies for a long time. Manymethods were and have been used in the elaboration of climate forecasting,and they have been made by dynamic and statistic models. At this researchthe characteristics of temperature and precipitation series will be analyzedin the central region of Rio Grande do Sul and, a statistical model will beproposed by the use of using the Box & Jenkins methodology. For theprecipitation series the used data were the ones accumulated in the monthand, for the temperature series the used data were the month average, fromJanuary 1970 to December 2006. The models suggested were SARIMA(0,0,0)(0,1,1)12 to represent the precipitation and SARIMA (1,0,0)(0,1,1)12to the temperature. The models proposed were able to show the temperatureand precipitation behaviors and will be useful for future decisions.Downloads
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