Previsão da Demanda de Leitos Hospitalares por Meio da Análise de Série Temporais

Francisca Mendonça Souza, Adriano Mendonça Souza, Luis Felipe Dias Lopes

Abstract


The University Hospital of Santa Maria HUSM is a reference inpublic health for the central region of Rio Grande do Sul. Being part of theFederal University of Santa Maria, the institution operates as a school hospitalaiming at the teaching development research and health assistance.The main purpose of this research is to forecast the hospital occupationrate in sectors named: General Hospital, Emergency Room of HUSM, using the Box & Jenkins methodology and Intervention analysis that will provideto future known of these variables at short-term. The data were collectedat the HUSM statistical sector, with monthly observations from Januaryof 2000 to December of 2004. The occupation rate in Emergency Roomwas explained by an ARIMA (1,1,1) with one intervention abrupt temporaryat lag 36. To the General Hospital a model ARIMA (1,1,2) was used. Theforecast will serve as basis for a better hospital organization.



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