A2/AD and capacity-building in the Global South: theoretical foundations, material constraints, and agendas for strategic adaptation

Abstract

This article analyzes the concept of anti-access and area denial (A2/AD) from a perspective centered on capacity-building in Global South countries. Rather than treating A2/AD merely as an employment doctrine or as an operational arrangement designed to restrict the freedom of action of a superior adversary, the text argues that its effectiveness depends on the integration of capabilities, doctrine, territory, infrastructure, logistics, command and control, and governance. The argument draws on a dialogue with classic and contemporary authors in strategic studies, especially Thomas Schelling, J. C. Wylie, Lawrence Freedman, Andrew Krepinevich, and Sam Tangredi, to demonstrate that A2/AD should be understood as a form of conventional coercion and selective control of space. The study then shifts the debate to the Global South, understood not merely as a geographical category, but as a position marked by power asymmetries, technological dependence, fiscal constraints, and the need for strategic prioritization. From this perspective, the article proposes an analytical framework based on eight constitutive dimensions of A2/AD capacity: sensing; command and control; precision fires; mobility and survivability; logistics; cyber and electronic protection; critical infrastructure; and governance with relative autonomy. Finally, the article discusses the main difficulties faced by Global South countries, with particular emphasis on budgetary fragility, and argues that the most promising path lies in the selective, incremental, and territorially oriented construction of capabilities, rather than in the mimetic reproduction of great-power models. The Brazilian case is used as an applied reference for thinking about a defense agenda based on conventional deterrence, the protection of sensitive areas, and systemic integration.