Simulation of the transmission dynamics of sporotrichosis in cats using the SI epidemiological model

Authors

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.5902/2179460X87105

Keywords:

Sporotrichosis, Incidence, Epidemic, susceptible infected mathematical model

Abstract

Sporotrichosis is an emerging and neglected mycosis with a worldwide distribution. In Brazil, a zoonotic epidemic is occurring, with two epicenters identified in the states of Rio de Janeiro and Rio Grande do Sul. However, little is known about the dynamics of this epidemic. In the present work, the incidence rate of the disease was calculated, and the SI (Susceptible Infected) mathematical model was employed to elucidate the epidemiological parameters and the epidemic curve of sporotrichosis in cats. Data from the urban area of Pelotas, the main city affected by sporotrichosis in southern Brazil, and secondary data from the main veterinary mycological diagnostic laboratory in the region were utilized. Through the results obtained, an average incidence rate of 79 cases per 100,000 cats was found, and R0 of 1.45 (basic reproduction number) was determined, indicating that the epidemic is in its exponential phase. It was confirmed that the SI mathematical model was capable of inferring fundamental parameters of the dynamics and dissemination of sporotrichosis, and can be used as a tool for predicting the progression of this disease. As a consequence of the results found, we present an epidemiological scenario that necessitates immediate intervention with measures to contain the spread of this epidemic.

Downloads

Download data is not yet available.

Author Biographies

Sergiane Baes Pereira, Universidade Federal de Pelotas

Graduated in Veterinary Medicine from the Federal University of Pelotas (2016). She currently works at the State Secretariat for Agriculture, Livestock, Sustainable Production and Irrigation and is a doctoral student in the Postgraduate Program in Veterinary Medicine at the Federal University of Pelotas. She has a specialization in Veterinary Clinical Pathology and Public Health, and a master's degree in epidemiology from the Federal University of Pelotas.

Fernanda Tumelero, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande

Professor at the Institute of Mathematics, Statistics and Physics - IMEF, Federal University of Rio Grande - FURG. Post-Doctorate in Mathematical Modeling from UFPel (2023). Post-doctorate in Engineering in the Postgraduate Program in Mechanical Engineering at UFRGS (2021). Post-Doctorate in Mathematical Modeling from UFPel (2020). PhD in Mechanical Engineering at the Federal University of Rio Grande do Sul (2019). Master in Mathematical Modeling at the Federal University of Pelotas (2015). Degree in Mathematics from the Federal Institute of Education, Science and Technology of Rio Grande do Sul - Campus Bento Gonçalves (2013).

Glênio Aguiar Gonçalves, Universidade Federal de Pelotas

He has a Bachelor's degree in Physics from the Federal University of Rio Grande do Sul (UFRGS) (1995), a Master's degree in Mechanical Engineering from the Federal University of Rio Grande do Sul (1999), a PhD in Mechanical Engineering from the Federal University of Rio Grande do Sul ( 2003) and post-doctorate at UFRGS (2008). He is currently a professor at the Federal University of Pelotas (UFPel).

Régis Sperotto de Quadros, Universidade Federal de Pelotas

He has a degree in Mathematics from the University of Passo Fundo (2000), a master's degree in Applied Mathematics from the Federal University of Rio Grande do Sul (2003), a PhD in Applied Mathematics from the Technische Universität Darmstadt in Darmstadt, Germany (2009) and a post-doctorate in Nuclear Energy from the Federal University of Rio Grande do Sul (2014). He is currently a professor at the Federal University of Pelotas.

Angelita dos Reis Gomes, Universidade Federal de Pelotas

Médica Veterinária da Faculdade de Veterinária da Universidade Federal de Pelotas (FAVET/UFPel). Micologista responsável pelo Centro de Diagnóstico e Pesquisa em Micologia Veterinária. Formada pela Universidade Federal de Santa Maria (UFSM, 2007). Mestrado em Veterinária (Universidade Federal de Pelotas, 2012). Doutora em Ciências Veterinárias - Sanidade Animal (UFPel, 2016).

Daniela Buske, Universidade Federal de Pelotas

Graduated in Mathematics from the Federal University of Santa Maria (1999), master's and doctorate in Mechanical Engineering from the Federal University of Rio Grande do Sul (2004; 2008) in the area of Transport Phenomena / Pollutant Dispersion and post-doctorate from the University Federal Government of Rio Grande do Sul (2011) in the area of Nuclear Engineering. She is currently a professor at the Federal University of Pelotas.

Renata Osório de Faria, Universidade Federal de Pelotas

He has a degree in Veterinary Medicine from UFPel, a Master's degree from the Postgraduate Program in Veterinary Medicine/UFPel and a PhD from the Postgraduate Program in Veterinary Sciences/UFRGS. She is a Professor at the Department of Preventive Veterinary Medicine at the Faculty of Veterinary Medicine-UFPel

Fábio Raphael Pascoti Bruhn, Universidade Federal de Pelotas

Professor at the Federal University of Pelotas (UFPel), Department of Preventive Veterinary Medicine at the Faculty of Veterinary Medicine. Graduated in veterinary medicine and PhD in veterinary sciences, in the area of Public Health and Animal Health from the Federal University of Lavras (UFLA).

References

Barnacle, J. R., Chow, Y. J., Borman, A. M., Wyllie, S., Dominguez, V., Russell, K., Roberts, H., Armstrong-James, D., Whittington, A. M. (2022). The first three reported cases of sporothrix brasiliensis cat-transmitted sporotrichosis outside south america. Med Mycol Case Rep, 39, 14–17.

Cori, A., Ferguson, N. M., Fraser, C., Cauchemez, S. (2013). A new framework and software to estimate time-varying reproduction numbers during epidemics. American Journal of Epidemiology, 178(9), 1505–1512.

Delamater, P. L., Street, E. J., Leslie, T. F., Jacobsen, K. H. (2019). Complexity of the basic reproduction number (r0). Emerging Infectious Disease, 25(1), 1–4.

Ferreira, M. L. (2021). Modelagem matemática em dinâmica da população como uma estratégia no ensino da matemática.

Gremião, I. D. F., Miranda, L. H. M., Reis, E. G., Rodrigues, A. M., Pereira, S. A. (2017). Zoonotic epidemic of sporotrichosis: cat to human transmission. PlosPathog, 13(1), 1–7.

IBGE - Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística (2019a). Indicadores sociais municipais – 2010. URL https://cidades.ibge.gov.br/brasil/rs/pelotas/pesquisa/23/25124, acessado em 04/05/19.

IBGE - Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística (2019b). População de animais de estimação no brasil – 2013. URL https://www.gov.br/agricultura/pt-br/assuntos/camaras-setoriais-tematicas/documentos/camaras-tematicas/insumos-agropecuarios/

anos-anteriores/ibge-populacao-de-animais-de-estimacao-no-brasil-2013-abinpet-79.pdf/view, acessado em 04/05/19.

IBGE - Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística (2020). Indicadores sociais municipais – 2010. URL https://cidades.ibge.gov.br/brasil/rs/rio-grande/pesquisa/23/25124, acessado em 10/10/20.

Keeling, M. J., Rohani, P. (2007). Modeling infectious diseases in humans and animals. Princeton University Press.

Pereira, S. B., Gomes, A. R., Waller, S. B., Xavier, J. R. B., Rodrigues, A. M., Ripoll, M. K., Ferreira, M. R. A., Conceição, F. R., Faria, R. O., Bruhn, F. R. P. (2022). Sporotrichosis in dogs: epidemiological and clinical-therapeutic profile and the emergence of itraconazole-resistant isolates. Med Mycol, 60(12).

Rabello, V. B. S., Almeida, M. A., Bernardes-Engemann, A. R., Almeida-Paes, R., de Macedo, P. M., Zancopé-Oliveira, R. M. (2022). The historical burden of sporotrichosis in brazil: a systematic review of cases reported from 1907 to 2020. Braz J Microbiol, 53(1), 231–244.

Rodrigues, A. M., Hoog, G. S., Camargo, Z. P. (2016). Sporothrix species causing outbreaks in animals and humans driven by animal – animal transmission. PLOS Pathogens, 12(7).

Sanchotene, K. O., Madrid, I. M., KLAFKE, G. B., Bergamashi, M., Della Terra, P. P., Rodrigues, A. M., de Camargo, Z. P., Xavier, M. O. (2015). Sporothrixbrasiliensis outbreaks and the rapid emergence of feline sporotrichosis. Mycoses, 58, 652–658.

Thompson, R. N., Stockwin, J. E., Van Gaalen, R. D., Polonsky, J. A., Kamvar, Z. N., Demarsh, P. A., Dahlqwist, E., Li, S., Miguel, Jombart, E. T., Lessler, J., Cauchemez, S., Cori, A. (2019). Improved inference of time-varying reproduction numbers during infectious disease outbreaks. Epidemics, 29.

Downloads

Published

2024-11-04

How to Cite

Pereira, S. B., Tumelero, F., Gonçalves, G. A., Quadros, R. S. de, Gomes, A. dos R., Buske, D., Faria, R. O. de, & Bruhn, F. R. P. (2024). Simulation of the transmission dynamics of sporotrichosis in cats using the SI epidemiological model. Ciência E Natura, 46(esp. 1), e87105. https://doi.org/10.5902/2179460X87105

Issue

Vol. 46 No. esp. 1 (2024): ERMAC e ENMC

Section

Special Edition 1

License

Copyright (c) 2024 Ciência e Natura

Creative Commons License

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

To access the DECLARATION AND TRANSFER OF COPYRIGHT AUTHOR’S DECLARATION AND COPYRIGHT LICENSE click here.

 

Ethical Guidelines for Journal Publication

The Ciência e Natura journal is committed to ensuring ethics in publication and quality of articles. 

Conformance to standards of ethical behavior is therefore expected of all parties involved: Authors, Editors, Reviewers, and the Publisher.

In particular, 

Authors: Authors should present an objective discussion of the significance of research work as well as sufficient detail and references to permit others to replicate the experiments. Fraudulent or knowingly inaccurate statements constitute unethical behavior and are unacceptable. Review Articles should also be objective, comprehensive, and accurate accounts of the state of the art. The Authors should ensure that their work is entirely original works, and if the work and/or words of others have been used, this has been appropriately acknowledged. Plagiarism in all its forms constitutes unethical publishing behavior and is unacceptable. Submitting the same manuscript to more than one journal concurrently constitutes unethical publishing behavior and is unacceptable. Authors should not submit articles describing essentially the same research to more than one journal. The corresponding Author should ensure that there is a full consensus of all Co-authors in approving the final version of the paper and its submission for publication.

Editors: Editors should evaluate manuscripts exclusively on the basis of their academic merit. An Editor must not use unpublished information in the editor's own research without the express written consent of the Author. Editors should take reasonable responsive measures when ethical complaints have been presented concerning a submitted manuscript or published paper.

Reviewers: Any manuscripts received for review must be treated as confidential documents. Privileged information or ideas obtained through peer review must be kept confidential and not used for personal advantage. Reviewers should be conducted objectively, and observations should be formulated clearly with supporting arguments, so that Authors can use them for improving the paper. Any selected Reviewer who feels unqualified to review the research reported in a manuscript or knows that its prompt review will be impossible should notify the Editor and excuse himself from the review process. Reviewers should not consider manuscripts in which they have conflicts of interest resulting from competitive, collaborative, or other relationships or connections with any of the authors, companies, or institutions connected to the papers.

Most read articles by the same author(s)

<< < 1 2 3 4 > >>