Precipitation extremes during the soybean planting period in the MATOPIBA region
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5902/2179460X84041Keywords:
Consecutive dry days (CDD), Consecutive wet days (CWD), Expert team on climate change detection and indices (ETCCDI), Extreme eventsAbstract
This work aims to analyze the variability of extreme consecutive dry days (CDD) and wet days (CWD) during the soybean planting period (October-November-December) in the MATOPIBA region from 1980 to 2019. Daily precipitation data from Xavier et al. (2022) was used, with a spatial resolution of 0.1° x 0.1° and a temporal resolution from 1980 to 2019. The extreme climate indices used (CDD and CWD) were defined by the ETCCDI (Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices) and statistical techniques were applied for a better understanding of precipitation variability in the region of interest. Among the main results, an increasing (decreasing) trend of 1 to 3 (1 to 2) days/decade in CDD (CWD) events in October was observed, along with an increasing trend (2 days/decade) in CDD events in December. These results may imply a delay in the implementation of the harvest (October) and a water deficit during the plant’s vegetative period, due to irregularities in December rainfall. Furthermore, there was a strong influence of the El Niño Southern Oscillation phenomenon on precipitation indices, serving as an additional limiting factor in rainfall distributions in MATOPIBA.
Downloads
References
ABRAHÃO, G.; COSTA, M. Evolution of rain and photoperiod limitations on the soybean growing season in Brazil: The rise (and possible fall) of double-cropping systems. Agric. For. Meteorol., v. 256-257, p. 32-45, jun. 2018. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2018.02.031.
ALEXANDER, L.; ARBLASTER, J. Historical and projected trends in temperature and precipitation extremes in Australia in observations and CMIP5. Weather Clim. Extrem., v. 15, p. 34-56. mar. 2017. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2017.02.001.
ARVOR, D.; MEIRELLES, M.; DUBREUIL, V.; BÉGUÉ, A.; SHIMABUKURO, Y. Analyzing the agricultural transition in Mato Grosso, Brazil, using satellite-derived indices. Appl. Geogr., v. 32, p. 702-713. mar. 2012. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.apgeog.2011.08.007.
AVILA-DIAZ, A.; ABRAHÃO, G.; JUSTINO, F.; TORRES, R.; WILSON, A. Extreme climate indices in Brazil: evaluation of downscaled earth system models at high horizontal resolution. Clim. Dyn. v. 54, p. 5065-5088. apr. 2020a. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05272-9.
AVILA-DIAZ, A.; BENEZOLI, V.; JUSTINO, F.; TORRES, R.; WILSON, A. Assessing current and future trends of climate extremes across Brazil based on reanalyses and earth system model projections. Clim. Dyn. v. 55, p. 1403-1426. jul. 2020b. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05333-z.
COMPANHIA NACIONAL DE ABASTECIMENTO (CONAB). Acompanhamento da Safra Brasileira - Grãos - Safra 2020/2021. 12° Levantamento, Brasília, v. 8, n° 12, p. 1-97, Setembro de 2021.
Empresa Brasileira de Pesquisa Agropecuária (EMBRAPA). Boletim de Pesquisa e Desenvolvimento: Zoneamento de risco climático para determinação de épocas de semeadura da cultura da soja na região MATOPIBA. 1° ed. v. 18, p. 44, 2017.
KUCHARIK, C. A multidecadal trend of earlier corn planting in the Central USA. Agron. J., v. 98, p. 1544-1550, nov. 2006. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.2134/agronj2006.0156.
MARENGO, J.; TORRES, R.; ALVES, L. Drought in Northeast Brazil-past, present, and future. Theor. Appl. Climatol. v. 129, p. 1189-1200. jun. 2017. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-016-1840-8.
RAY, D.; FOLEY, J. Increasing global crop harvest frequency: recent trends and future directions. Environ. Res. Lett., v. 8, 44041. nov. 2013. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/8/4/044041.
RAY, D.; GERBER, J.; MacDONALD, G.; WEST, P. Climate variation explains a third of global crop yield variability. Nat. Commun., v. 6, 5989. jan. 2015. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/ncomms6989.
REIS, L. C.; SILVA, C. M. S.; BEZERRA, B. G.; SPYRIDES, M. H. C. Caracterização da variabilidade da precipitação no MATOPIBA, região produtora de soja. RBGF, v. 13, p. 1425-1441, mai. 2020a.
REIS, L.; SILVA, C. M. S.; BEZERRA, B.; MUTTI, P.; SPYRIDES, M. H.; SILVA, P.; MAGALHÃES, T.; FERREIRA, R.; RODRIGUES, D.; ANDRADE, L. Influence of Climate Variability on Soybean Yield in MATOPIBA, Brazil. Atmosphere, v. 11, 1130, oct. 2020b. DOI: https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos11101130.
SACKS, W.; DERYNG, D.; FOLEY, J.; RAMANKUTTY, N. Crop Planting Dates: An Analysis of Global Patterns. Glob. Ecol. Biogeogr., v. 19, p. 607-620, aug. 2010. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1466-8238.2010.00551.x.
SALVADOR, M.; BRITO, J. Trend of annual temperature and frequency of extreme events in the MATOPIBA region of Brazil. Theor. Appl. Climatol. v. 133, p. 253–261. jun. 2018. DOI https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-017-2179-5.
SANTOS, M.; FRAGOSO, M.; SANTOS, J. Regionalization and susceptibility assessment to daily precipitation extremes in mainland Portugal. Appl. Geogr., v. 86, p. 128-138. 2017. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apgeog.2017.06.020.
SILLMANN, J.; KHARIN, V.; ZWIERS, F.; ZHANG, X.; BRONAUGH, D. Climate extremes indices in the CMIP5 multimodel ensemble: part 2. Future climate projections. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., v. 118, p. 2473-2493. sep. 2013. doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/jgrd.50188.
SILVA, L.; CASAROLI, D.; EVANGELISTA, A.; JÚNIOR, J.; BATTISTI, R. Rainfall Intensity-Duration-Frequency Relationships for Risk Analysis in the Region of Matopiba, Brazil. Rev. Bras. Meteorol., v. 34, p. 247-254. apr-jun. 2019. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1590/0102-7786334023.
STEHFEST, E.; HEISTERMANN, M.; PRIESS, J.; OJIMA, D.; ALCAMO, J. Simulation of global crop production with the ecosystem model DayCent. Ecol. Model., v. 209, p. 203-219. dec. 2007. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2007.06.028.
TOMASELLA, J.; PINHO, P.; BORMA, L.; MARENGO, J.; NOBRE, C.; BITTENCOURT, O.; PRADO, M.; RODRIGUEZ, D.; CUARTAS, L. The droughts of 1997 and 2005 in Amazonia: floodplain hydrology and its potential ecological and human impacts. Clim. Change, v. 116, p. 723-746. jun. 2012. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-012-0508-3.
VANWEY, L.; SPERA, S.; DE SA, R.; MAHR, D.; MUSTARD, J. Socioeconomic development and agricultural intensification in Mato Grosso. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B., v. 368, jun. 2013. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2012.0168.
XAVIER, A. C.; SCANLON, B. R.; KING, C. W.; ALVES, A. I. New improved Brazilian daily weather gridded data (1961–2020). Int. J. Climatol. v. 42, p. 8390-8404. may. 2022. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.7731
WAHA, K.; VAN BUSSEL, L.; MÜLLER, C.; BONDEAU, A. Climate-driven simulation of global crop sowing dates. Glob. Ecol. Biogeogr., v. 21, p. 247-259. may. 2012. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1466-8238.2011.00678.x.
ZHANG, X.; ALEXANDER, L.; HEGERL, G.; JONES, P.; TANK, A.; PETERSON, T.; TREWIN, B.; ZWIERS, F. Indices for monitoring changes in extremes based on daily temperature and precipitation data. Wiley Interdiscip. Rev.: Clim. Change, v. 2, p. 851-870. oct. 2011. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.147.
Downloads
Published
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2024 Ciência e Natura

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.
To access the DECLARATION AND TRANSFER OF COPYRIGHT AUTHOR’S DECLARATION AND COPYRIGHT LICENSE click here.
Ethical Guidelines for Journal Publication
The Ciência e Natura journal is committed to ensuring ethics in publication and quality of articles.
Conformance to standards of ethical behavior is therefore expected of all parties involved: Authors, Editors, Reviewers, and the Publisher.
In particular,
Authors: Authors should present an objective discussion of the significance of research work as well as sufficient detail and references to permit others to replicate the experiments. Fraudulent or knowingly inaccurate statements constitute unethical behavior and are unacceptable. Review Articles should also be objective, comprehensive, and accurate accounts of the state of the art. The Authors should ensure that their work is entirely original works, and if the work and/or words of others have been used, this has been appropriately acknowledged. Plagiarism in all its forms constitutes unethical publishing behavior and is unacceptable. Submitting the same manuscript to more than one journal concurrently constitutes unethical publishing behavior and is unacceptable. Authors should not submit articles describing essentially the same research to more than one journal. The corresponding Author should ensure that there is a full consensus of all Co-authors in approving the final version of the paper and its submission for publication.
Editors: Editors should evaluate manuscripts exclusively on the basis of their academic merit. An Editor must not use unpublished information in the editor's own research without the express written consent of the Author. Editors should take reasonable responsive measures when ethical complaints have been presented concerning a submitted manuscript or published paper.
Reviewers: Any manuscripts received for review must be treated as confidential documents. Privileged information or ideas obtained through peer review must be kept confidential and not used for personal advantage. Reviewers should be conducted objectively, and observations should be formulated clearly with supporting arguments, so that Authors can use them for improving the paper. Any selected Reviewer who feels unqualified to review the research reported in a manuscript or knows that its prompt review will be impossible should notify the Editor and excuse himself from the review process. Reviewers should not consider manuscripts in which they have conflicts of interest resulting from competitive, collaborative, or other relationships or connections with any of the authors, companies, or institutions connected to the papers.

