Study of the temporal variation of offshore wind energy potential in southeast Brazil




Renewable Energy, ERA5 reanalysis, Offshore Wind Farms


Global energy consumption has grown over the years marked by technological development and industrialization. Renewable sources have gained prominence due to climate urgency and international agreements that aim to reduce CO2 emissions across the planet. In this regard, wind energy, already consolidated in the onshore region, has evolved offshore regions. In Brazil, there is a growing interest in offshore wind projects. Many of these projects are currently through the environmental licensing process, mostly in the southeastern region of the country. It is known that this area has a relevant wind energy potential. This area is dynamically dominated by the South Atlantic Subtropical Height, the main meteorological phenomenon in the region, which has been affected by recent changes in the global atmospheric circulation. This work aims to evaluate the temporal variation of offshore wind potential in southeastern Brazil. ERA5 reanalysis hourly outputs from 1979 to 2020 were evaluated through high-level computational tools (python and CDO programming languages and GIS software) and consolidated statistical analysis mechanisms. A general decrease in the frequency of low wind speed records (≤7.5 m·s−1) and a raise in the higher wind speed range (>7.5 m·s−1), mainly related to the intensification and expansion of the South Atlantic Subtropical Height (SASH) over the past 40 years, were observed and affected the estimates of offshore wind potential over the analyzed region. Apart from the coast of São Paulo and the south coast of Rio de Janeiro, there was a consistent increase in the wind power density over decades. The four analyzed points presented an increase of 1.55 W·m−2·y−1 to 1.89 W·m−2·y−1, which corresponds to an increase of 8.2% to 11.2% in the median wind power density.


Download data is not yet available.

Author Biographies

Thiago Ribeiro Coriolano, Instituto Federal Fluminense, Macaé, RJ

Master's in Environmental Engineering, Instituto Federal Fluminense.

Natália Tasso Signorelli, Universidade Estadual do Norte Fluminense Darcy Ribeiro, Macaé, RJ

Master's in Science, with emphasis in Oceanography, Universidade de São Paulo.

Jader Lugon Junior, Instituto Federal Fluminense, Macaé, RJ

PhD in Computer Modeling.

Marcos Antonio Cruz Moreira, Instituto Federal Fluminense, Macaé, RJ

PhD in Electrical Engineering, Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro

Maria Gertrudes Alvarez Justi da Silva, Universidade Estadual do Norte Fluminense Darcy Ribeiro, Macaé, RJ

PhD in Mechanical Engineering, Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro


ALAYDI, Juma Yousuf. A Survey on the Assessment of Wind Energy Potential in Gaza Strip. Wind Engineering, v. 34, n. 5, p. 531–541, 1 out. 2010.

ASAKEREH, Abbas; OMID, Mahmoud; ALIMARDANI, Reza; SARMADIAN, Fereydoon. Investigating Potential of Wind Energy in Mahshahr, Iran. Wind Engineering, v. 39, n. 4, p. 369–384, 2015.

BRASIL. Convenção das Nações Unidas sobre o direto do mar. 99.165, 1990.

C3S. ERA5: Fifth generation of ECMWF atmospheric reanalyses of the global climate. 2017. Disponível em:!/home. Acesso em: 1 dez. 2020.

CARVALHO, David; GÓMEZ-GESTEIRA, M.; SILVA SANTOS, Carlos. Potential impacts of climate change on European wind energy resource under the CMIP5 future climate projections. Renewable Energy, v. 101, p. 29–40, 1 fev. 2017.

CORIOLANO, Thiago Ribeiro. Estudo do Potencial de Geração de Energia Eólica Offshore no Brasil. 2020. 52 f. Monografia (Pós-Graduação) – UNIVERSIDADE ESTADUAL DO NORTE FLUMINENSE DARCY RIBEIRO, Macaé, 2020. Disponível em:

DEGOLA, Thiago Souza Dias. Impactos e variabilidade do anticiclone subtropical do atlântico sul sobre o Brasil no clima presente e em cenários futuros. 2013. 112 f. Dissertação de Mestrado – Universidade de São Paulo, São Paulo, 2013. Disponível em: Acesso em: 22 nov. 2019.

EDENHOFER, O.; R. PICHS-MADRUGA; Y. SOKONA; K. SEYBOTH; P. MATSCHOSS; S. KADNER; T. ZWICKEL; P. EICKEMEIER; G. HANSEN; S. SCHLÖMER; C. VON STECHOW. Renewable energy sources and climate change mitigation: special report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Choice Reviews Online, v. 49, n. 11, p. 49-6309-49–6309, 1 jul. 2012.

EPE. Roadmap Eólica Offshore Brasil, n. No NT-EPE-PR-001/2020-r1. Rio de Janeiro - Brasil: EPE, 2020.

GIBBONS, Jean Dickinson; CHAKRABORTI, Subhabrata. Nonparametric Statistical Inference. [S. l.]: CRC Press, 2020.

GOMES, Mateus Sant’Anna de Sousa. Proposta de uma metodologia para utilização de energia eólica offshore no litoral Sudeste do Brasil. 26 fev. 2018. Disponível em: Acesso em: 23 ago. 2020.

GRANATO, Gregory E. Kendall-Theil Robust Line (KTRLine—version 1.0)—A Visual Basic Program for Calculating and Graphing Robust Nonparametric Estimates of Linear-Regression Coefficients Between Two Continuous Variables. [S. l.: s. n.], 2006. v. chap. A7, (4). Disponível em: Acesso em: 30 maio 2021.

GWEC. Global Wind Report 2019 | Global Wind Energy Council. [S. l.: s. n.], 2019. Disponível em: Acesso em: 30 maio 2021.

HE, Chao; WU, Bo; ZOU, Liwei; ZHOU, Tianjun. Responses of the Summertime Subtropical Anticyclones to Global Warming. Journal of Climate, v. 30, n. 16, seç. Journal of Climate, p. 6465–6479, 15 ago. 2017.

HERSBACH, Hans; BELL, Bill; BERRISFORD, Paul; HIRAHARA, Shoji; HORÁNYI, András; MUÑOZ-SABATER, Joaquín; NICOLAS, Julien; PEUBEY, Carole; RADU, Raluca; SCHEPERS, Dinand; SIMMONS, Adrian; SOCI, Cornel; ABDALLA, Saleh; ABELLAN, Xavier; BALSAMO, Gianpaolo; BECHTOLD, Peter; BIAVATI, Gionata; BIDLOT, Jean; BONAVITA, Massimo; … THÉPAUT, Jean-Noël. The ERA5 global reanalysis. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, v. 146, n. 730, p. 1999–2049, 2020.

HUDSON, R. D. Measurements of the movement of the jet streams at mid-latitudes, in the Northern and Southern Hemispheres, 1979 to 2010. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, v. 12, n. 16, p. 7797–7808, 30 ago. 2012.

IEA (Org.). Offshore Wind Outlook 2019: World Energy Outlook Special Report. Offshore Wind, p. 98, 2019. ISO. ISO 2533:1975. 1975. ISO. Disponível em: Acesso em: 31 maio 2021.

JIANG, Yingni. Research on Wind Energy Potential at Karamay. Wind Engineering, v. 39, p. 229–236, 1 jun. 2015.

KAPALA, A.; MÄCHEL, H.; FLOHN, H. Behaviour of the centres of action above the Atlantic since 1881. Part II: Associations with regional climate anomalies. International Journal of Climatology, v. 18, n. 1, p. 23–36, 1998.<23::AID-JOC226>3.0.CO;2-7.

NASCIMENTO, Mariana Ximenes do. Estudo do Potencial da Energia Eólica Offshore nas Bacias do Sul e Sudeste do Brasil. 2020. 60 f. Monografia (Pós-Graduação) – UNIVERSIDADE ESTADUAL DO NORTE FLUMINENSE DARCY RIBEIRO, Macaé, 2020. Disponível em:

OLAUSON, Jon. ERA5: The new champion of wind power modelling? Renewable Energy, v. 126, p. 322–331, 1 out. 2018.

PEREIRA, Enio B.; MARTINS, Fernando R.; PES, Marcelo P.; DA CRUZ SEGUNDO, Eliude I.; LYRA, André de A. The impacts of global climate changes on the wind power density in Brazil. Renewable Energy, Selected papers from World Renewable Energy Congress - XI. v. 49, p. 107–110, 1 jan. 2013.

REBOITA, Michelle Simões; AMARO, Tatiana Rocha; DE SOUZA, Marcelo Rodrigues. Winds: intensity and power density simulated by RegCM4 over South America in present and future climate. Climate Dynamics, v. 51, n. 1, p. 187–205, 1 jul. 2018.

REBOITA, Michelle Simões; AMBRIZZI, Tércio; SILVA, Bruna Andrelina; PINHEIRO, Raniele Fátima; DA ROCHA, Rosmeri Porfírio. The South Atlantic Subtropical Anticyclone: Present and Future Climate. Frontiers in Earth Science, v. 7, 2019. DOI 10.3389/feart.2019.00008. Disponível em: Acesso em: 5 jun. 2021.

RITCHIE, Hannah; ROSER, Max. World per capita electricity consumption. 2021. Disponível em: Acesso em: 29 jan. 2021.

SANTESTEVAN, William Hornburg. A ZONA ECONÔMICA EXCLUSIVA BRASILEIRA E OS PARQUES EÓLICOS OFFSHORE: ASPECTOS LEGAIS. 2019. 49 f. Trabalho Conclusão do Curso – Universidade Federal de Santa Catarina, Araranguá, 2019. Disponível em: Acesso em: 23 ago. 2020.

SANTOS, J. A.; ROCHINHA, C.; LIBERATO, M. L. R.; REYERS, M.; PINTO, J. G. Projected changes in wind energy potentials over Iberia. Renewable Energy, v. 75, p. 68–80, 1 mar. 2015.

SCHAEFFER, Roberto; SZKLO, Alexandre Salem; PEREIRA DE LUCENA, André Frossard; MOREIRA CESAR BORBA, Bruno Soares; PUPO NOGUEIRA, Larissa Pinheiro; FLEMING, Fernanda Pereira; TROCCOLI, Alberto; HARRISON, Mike; BOULAHYA, Mohammed Sadeck. Energy sector vulnerability to climate change: A review. Energy, v. 38, n. 1, p. 1–12, 1 fev. 2012.

SEIDEL, Dian J.; FU, Qiang; RANDEL, William J.; REICHLER, Thomas J. Widening of the tropical belt in a changing climate. Nature Geoscience, v. 1, n. 1, p. 21–24, jan. 2008.

SEI/IBAMA. Sistema Eletrônico de Informações - SEI/IBAMA. 2021. Disponível em:

SIGNORELLI, Natália Tasso. Um estudo da variabilidade da alta subtropical do atlântico sul usando reanálises. 2017. 45 f. Trabalho de Conclusão de Curso (Especialização) – Universidade Estadual Norte Fluminense Darcy Ribeiro, Macaé, 2017.

SOARES, Pedro M. M.; LIMA, Daniela C. A.; NOGUEIRA, Miguel. Global offshore wind energy resources using the new ERA-5 reanalysis. Environmental Research Letters, v. 15, n. 10, p. 1040a2, out. 2020.

SOUZA, Laise Novellino Nunes de; ALVES, Alexsandro da Silva; JUNIOR, Jader Lugon; PINTO, Augusto Eduardo Miranda. Legal challenges for the implementation of a wind farm in the city of Macaé, Rio de Janeiro – Brasil. Revista de Direito da Cidade, v. 13, p. 1081–1099, 2021.

VIZY, Edward K.; COOK, Kerry H. Understanding long-term (1982–2013) multi-decadal change in the equatorial and subtropical South Atlantic climate. Climate Dynamics, v. 46, n. 7, p. 2087–2113, 1 abr. 2016.



2022-04-04 — Updated on 2022-04-18


How to Cite

Coriolano, T. R., Signorelli, N. T., Lugon Junior, J., Moreira, M. A. C., & Silva, M. G. A. J. da. (2022). Study of the temporal variation of offshore wind energy potential in southeast Brazil. Ciência E Natura, 44, e6. (Original work published April 4, 2022)