Scenarios for Ceará’s electricity generation matrix in 2050
en
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5902/2179460X42805Keywords:
Energetic scenarios, Energy planning, Ceará 2050Abstract
Based on the worldwide proposition of energy matrix scenarios for 2050, the objective of this article is to present scenarios of electricity generation for Ceará in 2050, showing the participation of sources already used in the state's electric matrix and adding new ones. The article proposes three scenarios: a conservative one, where the present proportion of electricity generation sources of the state is maintained, a transitional one, with 50% of electricity generation from non-renewable sources and the other 50% from renewable sources, and 100% renewable, without the use of fossil or nuclear fuels. Estimates for 2050 in the state are obtained by extrapolating generation data from 2011 to 2017, reaching an estimated 94,775 GWh. In the conservative scenario, it is observed that half of this generation is made by thermoelectric plants and the other half by wind farms. In the transition scenario, dominated by the use of natural gas, the exponential growth of photovoltaic generation stands out. In the 100% renewable scenario, dominated by wind farms, in addition to the similar growth of photovoltaic generation as in the transition scenario, we highlight the use of urban solid waste and solar thermal concentration plants.
Downloads
References
ASSOCIAÇÃO BRASILEIRA DE ENERGIA EÓLICA (ABEEÓLICA). Energia Eólica [Internet]. 2019. [cited, 2019 maio 16]. http://abeeolica.org.br/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/Infovento-11_PT.pdf
AGÊNCIA NACIONAL DE ENERGIA ELÉTRICA (ANEEL). Banco de Informações de Geração - BIG. [Internet]. 2019. [cited, 2018 nov 01]. www.aneel.gov.br/15.htm
AGÊNCIA NACIONAL DE ENERGIA ELÉTRICA (ANEEL). Banco de Informações de Geração - BIG. Capacidade de Geração do Brasil. [Internet]. 2019. [cited, 2018 jun 01]. http://www.aneel.gov.br/aplicacoes/capacidadebrasil/capacidadebrasil.cfm
AGÊNCIA NACIONAL DE ENERGIA ELÉTRICA (ANEEL). Banco de Informações de Geração - BIG. Capacidade de Geração no Estado. [Internet]. 2019. [cited, 2018 mai 18]. http://www2.aneel.gov.br/aplicacoes/ResumoEstadual/CapacidadeEstado.cfm
AGÊNCIA NACIONAL DE ENERGIA ELÉTRICA (ANEEL). Banco de Informações de Geração - BIG. Capacidade Instalada por Estado. [Internet]. 2019. [cited, 2018 mai 30]. http://www2.aneel.gov.br/aplicacoes/ResumoEstadual/CapacidadeEstado.cfm
ASSOCIAÇÃO BRASILEIRA DE EMPRESAS DE LIMPEZA PÚBLICA E RESÍDUOS ESPECIAIS (ABRELPE). Panorama dos Resíduos Sólidos no Brasil – 2017 [Internet]. 2017 [cited 2018 mai 09]. http://abrelpe.org.br/pdfs/panorama/panorama_abrelpe_2017.pdf
BORGES NETO, M. R.; CARVALHO, P. C. M. Geração de Energia Elétrica-Fundamentos. 1st ed. São Paulo. Editora Érica. 2012 (ISBN 978-85-365-0422-3).
BURGI, A. S. Avaliação do potencial técnico de geração elétrica termossolar no Brasil a partir de modelagem em SIG e simulação de plantas virtuais [dissertation]. Rio de Janeiro: COPPE/UFRJ; 2013. 141p.
CARVALHO, P. C. M., MACHADO, L. A., VITORIANO, C. T. RAMÍREZ, L. M. F. Land requirement scenarios of PV plants in Brazil. Renewable Energy & Power Quality Journal. 2018;1(16):170–174 https://doi.org/10.24084/repqj16.252.
CENTRO DE ESTRATÉGIA EM RECURSOS NATURAIS & ENERGIA (CERNE). Matriz do Ceará terá reforço de 325,8 MW de eólicas. <http://cerne.org.br/matriz-do-ceara-tera-reforco-de-3258-mw-de-eolicas/>. Accessed in: 19 jun. 2018.
CENTRO DE ESTUDOS EM REGULAÇÃO E INFRAESTRUTURA (CERI). Geração termelétrica a gás natural: comprovação de disponibilidade de combustível. [Internet]. 2019. [cited, 2018 mai 30]. https://ceri.fgv.br/sites/default/files/publicacoes/2018-10/53_53_relatorio-geracao-termeletrica-a-gas-natural-2017_0.pdf
CLARKE, R.E.; GIDDEY, S.; BADWAL, S.P.S. Stand-alone PEM water electrolysis system for fail safe operation with a renewable energy source. International Journal of Hydrogen Energy. 2010;35(3):928–935.
DO SACRAMENTO, E.; DELIMA, L.; OLIVEIRA, C.; & VEZIROGLU, T. A hydrogen energy system and prospects for reducing emissions of fossil fuels pollutants in the Ceará state—Brazil. International Journal of Hydrogen Energy. 2008;33(9):2132–2137.
DO SACRAMENTO, E., SALES, A., DELIMA, L., & VEZIROGLU, T. A solar–wind hydrogen energy system for the Ceará state – Brazil. International Journal of Hydrogen Energy. 2008;33(20):5304–5311.
DO SACRAMENTO, E. M., CARVALHO, P. C. M., DE LIMA, L. C., & VEZIROGLU, T. N. Feasibility study for the transition towards a hydrogen economy: A case study in Brazil. Energy Policy. 2013;62:3–9 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2013.06.071.
ECODEBATE. Caetité: Água no interior da Bahia está contaminada com urânio. <https://www.ecodebate.com.br/2010/02/25/caetite-agua-no-interior-da-bahia-esta-contaminada-com-uranio/>. Accessed in: 03 mai. 2019
ECODEBATE. O Caso de Caetité, 2011. <https://www.ecodebate.com.br/2011/06/01/o-caso-de-caetite-ba-progresso-para-quem-contradicoes-da-exploracao-mineraria/>. Accessed in: 19 jul. 2018.
ELETROBRAS. Eletronuclear – Angra 3. <http://www.eletronuclear.gov.br/Nossas-Atividades/Paginas/Angra-3.aspx>. Accessed in: 26 mai. 2019.
EMPRESA DE PESQUISA ENERGÉTICA (EPE). Anuário Estatístico de Energia Elétrica – 2015 [Internet]. 2015 [cited 2018 mai 15]. http://epe.gov.br/sites-pt/publicacoes-dados-abertos/publicacoes/PublicacoesArquivos/publicacao-160/topico-168/Anu%C3%A1rio%20Estat%C3%ADstico%20de%20Energia%20El%C3%A9trica%202015.pdf.
EMPRESA DE PESQUISA ENERGÉTICA (EPE). Balanço Energético Nacional – 2017 [Internet]. 2017 [cited 2019 mai 09]. http://www.epe.gov.br/sites-pt/publicacoes-dados-abertos/publicacoes/PublicacoesArquivos/publicacao-46/topico-82/Relatorio_Final_BEN_2017.pdf.
EMPRESA DE PESQUISA ENERGÉTICA (EPE). Balanço Energético Nacional – 2018 [Internet]. 2018 [cited 2019 mai 09]. http://www.epe.gov.br/sites-pt/publicacoes-dados-abertos/publicacoes/PublicacoesArquivos/publicacao-303/topico-419/BEN2018__Int.pdf.
EMPRESA DE PESQUISA ENERGÉTICA (EPE). Calculadora 2050. <http://calculadora2050brasil.epe.gov.br/assets/onepage/9.pdf>. Accessed in: 26 mai. 2019
EMPRESA DE PESQUISA ENERGÉTICA (EPE). Leilão de geração para 2017 contrata usinas hidrelétricas e parques eólicos. <http://www.epe.gov.br/imprensa/PressReleases/20121214_1.pdf>. Accessed in: 14 mai. 2019.
EMPRESA DE PESQUISA ENERGÉTICA (EPE). Recursos Energéticos Distribuídos 2050- Relatório Síntese - NOTA TÉCNICA PR 08/18 [Internet]. 2018 [cited 2019 mai 14]. http://www.mme.gov.br/documents/10584/117707623/11.+Recursos+Energeticos+Distribu%C3%ADdos+2050+%28NT+PR+008-2018%29.pdf/ebf360c8-3269-480d-a653-4a694c609252?version=1.3.
ENEL. Relatório Anual de Sustentabilidade Enel Brasil 2016 [Internet]. 2016 [cited 2019 jun 03]. https://www.enel.com.br/content/dam/enel-br/quemsomos/relatorios-anuais/2016/35_ENEL_relatorio2016_SIMPLES_tr.pdf
ENERGY INFORMATION ADMINISTRATION (EIA). Annual Energy Outlook 2012 [Internet]. Washington: U. S. Energy Information Administration; 2012. [cited 2019 mai 11]. https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/aeo/pdf/0383(2012).pdf
ENERGY INFORMATION ADMINISTRATION (EIA). Annual Energy Outlook 2014 [Internet]. Washington: U. S. Energy Information Administration; 2012. [cited 2019 mai 11]. https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/aeo/pdf/0383(2014).pdf
ESTEVES, N. B., SIGAL, A., LEIVA, E. P. M., RODRÍGUEZ, C. R., CAVALCANTE, F. S. A., & DE LIMA, L. C. Wind and solar hydrogen for the potential production of ammonia in the state of Ceará – Brazil. International Journal of Hydrogen Energy. 2015;40(32):9917–9923.
FTHENAKIS, V.; KIM, H. C. Land use and electricity generation: A life-cycle analysis. 2009;13:1465–1474.
FUNDAÇÃO CEARENSE DE METEOROLOGIA E RECURSOS HÍDRICOS (FUNCEME). Atlas Solarimétrico do Ceará: 1963-2008 [Internet]. 2010 [cited 2009 mai 27]. http://www.funceme.br/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/Atlas-Solarim%C3%A9trico-do-Cear%C3%A1.pdf.
GORAYEB, A; BRANNSTROM, C. Toward Participatory Management of Renewable Energy Resources (Wind-Farm) in Northeastern Brazil. Mercator. 2016;15(1):105-115.
GREENPEACE INTERNATIONAL. Energy [R]evolution: A sustainable world energy outlook 2015. [Internet]. 2015. [cited, 2019 mai 16]. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/310018861_Energy_Revolution_-_A_sustainable_world_energy_outlook_2015
GREENPEACE INTERNATIONAL. Energy [R]evolution: For a Brazil with 100% clean and renewable energy. [Internet]. 2016. [cited, 2019 mai 16]. https://elib.dlr.de/107961/2/Energy%20Revolution%20%E2%80%93%20Brazil%202016%20.pdf
INDÚSTRIAS NUCLEARES DO BRASIL (INB). Reserva de Urânio no Brasil. [Internet]. 2019. [cited, 2019 mai 26]. http://www.inb.gov.br/Contato/Perguntas-Frequentes/Pergunta/Conteudo/onde-podemos-encontrar-reservas-de-uranio-no-brasil?Origem=426
INSTITUTO NACIONAL DE PESQUISAS ESPACIAIS (INPE). Atlas Brasileiro de Energia Solar [Internet]. 2017 [cited 2019 mai 09]. http://ftp.cptec.inpe.br/labren/publ/livros/Atlas_Brasileiro_Energia_Solar_2a_Edicao.pdf
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY (IEA). Key World Energy Statistics 2018 [Internet]. 2018. [cited 2019 mai 18]. https://www.connaissancedesenergies.org/sites/default/files/pdf-actualites/Key_World_Energy_Statistics_2018.pdf
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY (IEA). World Energy Outlook 2014 [Internet]. 2014. [cited 2019 mai 18]. Available from: https://www.iea.org/newsroom/news/2014/november/world-energy-outlook-2014.html
INTERNATIONAL RENEWABLE ENERGY AGENCY (IRENA). Global Energy Transformation. [Internet]. 2018. [cited, 2019 mai 13]. https://www.irena.org/-/media/Files/IRENA/Agency/Publication/2018/Apr/IRENA_Report_GET_2018.pdf
INTERNATIONAL RENEWABLE ENERGY AGENCY (IRENA). Global Energy Transformation. [Internet]. 2019. [cited, 2019 mai 13]. https://www.irena.org/publications/2019/Apr/Global-energy-transformation-A-roadmap-to-2050-2019Edition
JUNQUEIRA, S. L. C. D. Geração de energias através de biogás proveniente de esterco bovino: estudo de caso na fazenda aterrado [monography]. Rio de Janeiro: DEM/POLI/UFRJ; 2014.
LIPMAN, T. An Overview of Hydrogen Production and Storage Systems With Renewable Hydrogen Case Studies [Internet]. California: A Clean Energy State Alliance Report; 2011 [cited 2019 jun 09]. https://www.cesa.org/assets/2011-Files/Hydrogen-and-Fuel-Cells/CESA-Lipman-H2-prod-storage-050311.pdf
MINISTÉRIO DE MINAS E ENERGIAS (MME). Boletim MME. Energia Solar no Brasil e no Mundo. [Internet]. 2017. [cited, 2018 mar 14]. http://www.mme.gov.br
MOREIRA, J. M. L., CESARETTI, M. A., CARAJILESCOV, P., MAIORINO. J. R. Sustainability deterioration of electricity generation in Brazil. Energy Policy, 2015;87:334-346.
MOREIRA, J. R. S. Energias renováveis, geração distribuída e eficiência energética. 1st ed. Rio de Janeiro: Ltc, 2017.
ODEH, S., MORRISON, G. & BEHNIA, M. Modelling of parabolic trough direct steam generation solar collectors. Solar Energy. 1998;62:395-406.
PATRÍCIO, R. A., SALES, A. D., SACRAMENTO, E. M., DE LIMA, L. C., & VEZIROGLU, T. N. Wind hydrogen energy system and the gradual replacement of natural gas in the State of Ceará – Brazil. International Journal of Hydrogen Energy. 2012;37(9):7355–7364.
PLANETA COPPE NOTÍCIAS. Geração de Energia Elétrica pelas Ondas do Mar. <http://www.coppe.ufrj.br/pt-br/geracao-de-energia-eletrica-pelas-ondas-do-mar-0>. Accessed in: 25 mai. 2019.
PRASAD, R. D.; BANSAL, R. C. & RATURI, A. Multi-faceted energy planning: A review. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews. 2014;38:686–699.
SECRETARIA DA INFRAESTRUTURA DO ESTADO DO CEARÁ. Atlas do Potencial Eólico [Internet]. 2001 [cited 2019 mai 19]. http://www.cresesb.cepel.br/publicacoes/download/atlas_eolico/Atlas%20do%20Potencial%20Eolico%20Brasileiro.pdf
SULIANO, C. D; MAGALHÃES, A.K; SOARES, B.R. a influência do clima no desempenho da economia cearense [Internet]. 2009. [cited 2019 jun 03]. https://www.ipece.ce.gov.br/wp-content/uploads/sites/45/2014/02/TD_56.pdf
TOLMASQUIM; M.T., coordenador. Energia termelétrica: gás natural, biomassa, carvão, nuclear. Rio de Janeiro: EPE, 2016.
TOLMASQUIM; M.T. Plano Nacional de Energia 2030 [Internet] 2007 [cited 2009 jun 01]. https://edisciplinas.usp.br/pluginfile.php/49036/mod_resource/content/1/PNE%202030%20apresentacao.pdf.
VEZIROGLU, T.N.; BARBIR, F. Solar–Hydrogen Energy System: The Choice of the Future. Environmental Conservation, 1991;18(4):304-312.
VEZIROGLU, T.N.; BARBIR, F. Hydrogen Energy Technologies [Internet]. Vienna; 1998 [cited 2009 Mar 09]. https://open.unido.org/api/documents/4808760/download/HYDROGEN%20ENERGY%20TECHNOLOGIES.%20EMERGING%20TECHNOLOGY%20SERIES%20(21974.en)
VITORINO, C R. S. Modelagem dinâmica de caixa multiplicadora de velocidades de aerogeradores [monography]. Brasília: DEM/UNB; 2012.
WALSH JR., J.L. et al. Handbook on biogas utilization. U.S. Department of Energy. 1998.
Downloads
Published
Versions
- 2022-04-26 (2)
- 2020-05-26 (1)
How to Cite
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2020 Ciência e Natura
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.
To access the DECLARATION AND TRANSFER OF COPYRIGHT AUTHOR’S DECLARATION AND COPYRIGHT LICENSE click here.
Ethical Guidelines for Journal Publication
The Ciência e Natura journal is committed to ensuring ethics in publication and quality of articles.
Conformance to standards of ethical behavior is therefore expected of all parties involved: Authors, Editors, Reviewers, and the Publisher.
In particular,
Authors: Authors should present an objective discussion of the significance of research work as well as sufficient detail and references to permit others to replicate the experiments. Fraudulent or knowingly inaccurate statements constitute unethical behavior and are unacceptable. Review Articles should also be objective, comprehensive, and accurate accounts of the state of the art. The Authors should ensure that their work is entirely original works, and if the work and/or words of others have been used, this has been appropriately acknowledged. Plagiarism in all its forms constitutes unethical publishing behavior and is unacceptable. Submitting the same manuscript to more than one journal concurrently constitutes unethical publishing behavior and is unacceptable. Authors should not submit articles describing essentially the same research to more than one journal. The corresponding Author should ensure that there is a full consensus of all Co-authors in approving the final version of the paper and its submission for publication.
Editors: Editors should evaluate manuscripts exclusively on the basis of their academic merit. An Editor must not use unpublished information in the editor's own research without the express written consent of the Author. Editors should take reasonable responsive measures when ethical complaints have been presented concerning a submitted manuscript or published paper.
Reviewers: Any manuscripts received for review must be treated as confidential documents. Privileged information or ideas obtained through peer review must be kept confidential and not used for personal advantage. Reviewers should be conducted objectively, and observations should be formulated clearly with supporting arguments, so that Authors can use them for improving the paper. Any selected Reviewer who feels unqualified to review the research reported in a manuscript or knows that its prompt review will be impossible should notify the Editor and excuse himself from the review process. Reviewers should not consider manuscripts in which they have conflicts of interest resulting from competitive, collaborative, or other relationships or connections with any of the authors, companies, or institutions connected to the papers.
