Scenarios for Ceará’s electricity generation matrix in 2050

Breno Bezerra Freitas, Clayton Ferreira Teles, Davi Ribeiro Lins, David Mickely Jaramillo Loayza, Dayane Cristina Lima Ramalho, Dayse Maria Benevides de Queiroz, Deivid Matias de Freitas, Francisco Eduardo Mendes da Silva, Francisco Jeandson Rodrigues da Silva, Gilderlanio Barbosa Alves Palacio, José Cleison Cassiano Ribeiro, Kênio Monteles Uchôa, Leticia de Oliveira Santos, Magna Lívia Neco Rabelo, Natasha Esteves Batista, Paulo Cesar Marques de Carvalho, Raoni Alves de Lima, Victor Augusto Cavalcante Bezerra Menezes, Victor Soares Gualberto, Tiago de Oliveira Nogueira

Abstract


Based on the worldwide proposition of energy matrix scenarios for 2050, the objective of this article is to present scenarios of electricity generation for Ceará in 2050, showing the participation of sources already used in the state's electric matrix and adding new ones. The article proposes three scenarios: a conservative one, where the present proportion of electricity generation sources of the state is maintained, a transitional one, with 50% of electricity generation from non-renewable sources and the other 50% from renewable sources, and 100% renewable, without the use of fossil or nuclear fuels. Estimates for 2050 in the state are obtained by extrapolating generation data from 2011 to 2017, reaching an estimated 94,775 GWh. In the conservative scenario, it is observed that half of this generation is made by thermoelectric plants and the other half by wind farms. In the transition scenario, dominated by the use of natural gas, the exponential growth of photovoltaic generation stands out. In the 100% renewable scenario, dominated by wind farms, in addition to the similar growth of photovoltaic generation as in the transition scenario, we highlight the use of urban solid waste and solar thermal concentration plants.


Keywords


Energetic scenarios; Energy planning; Ceará 2050

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DOI: https://doi.org/10.5902/2179460X42805

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