Modelagem Estatística para Previsão de Geada de Radiação
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5902/2179460X22890Keywords:
Temperatura mínima. Radiação terrestre. Geada brancaAbstract
O objetivo do estudo foi obter modelos estatísticos para a previsão de geada branca. Foram utilizados dados meteorológicos diários de temperatura mínima e temperatura média do ar das 18 h e 00 h (TMG - Tempo Médio de Greenwich) no período de maio a agosto de 2000 a 2015, de estações localizadas nos municípios de Campos Novos, Lages, Chapecó e São Joaquim, em Santa Catarina. Foi utilizada a regressão linear simples e polinomial para correlacionar as variáveis independentes (X), temperatura mínima, temperatura média, temperatura das 18 h e 00 h (TGM) do dia anterior (Ti-1), com a variável dependente (Y), temperatura mínima do dia presente (Tmin i). O índice de confiança foi utilizado para avaliar a confiabilidade da estimativa de temperatura mínima (Ti). A temperatura do ar a 00 h (TMG) foi a melhor variável preditora para a temperatura mínima (Tmin i). Os modelos estatísticos obtidos para previsão de temperatura mínima (Tmin i) apresentaram um desempenho ‘muito bom’. Em eventos de geada branca (Tmin ≤ 4°C), o acerto nas estimativas esteve entre 64,3% e 88,9%.
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