Wiliam Morales, Yoshihiro Yamasaki


In the South America the regions of occurrence of the Low-Level-Jet at East Andes (LLJEA) and South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ) where there are the largest import continental moisture. These two systems act over southern and southeast especially in the warm seasons of the year. Throughout 2011, the forecasts made by non-hydrostatic mesoscale Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model (SKAMAROCK et al., 2008) with 18 km grid spatial resolution and 35 vertical levels were used to analyze the Vertically Integrated Moisture Flux Convergence (VIMFC) fields and explore its relevance in the short-term forecasting activities. Several events of intense precipitation occurred during the 2011 year over Brazil were associated with LLJEA and SACZ, and two of them are presented. The results show meaning especially in their prediction with forecast horizon of 3 hours before the occurrence of storms. The study showed that the VIMFC prognosis indicated that there is a good agreement in terms of the location of cloudclusters that have been developed, compared with the corresponding representations in sequences compared with the of satellite images in the three hours after.


WRF; CFUVI; mesoescala; fluxo de umidade


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