STATISTICAL PREDICTION OF SUMMER RAINFALL IN CENTRAL WEST ARGENTINA
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5902/2179460X16219Keywords:
Precipitação, previsão estatística, Argentina Central, temperatura da superfície do mar.Abstract
http://dx.doi.org/10.5902/2179460X16219
This paper attempts to understand the rainfall interannual variability in order to predict seasonal precipitation using a linear regression model. This work analyze summer precipitation (December, January and February) in central-west Argentina based on comparing the behavior of previous (in November) atmospheric and oceanic variables in extreme years with drought and excess precipitation. The main predictors were geopotential height and warming of central Pacific Ocean. Generally,higher than normal precipitation cases were associated with the weakening of the subtropical high and subpolar low, a weakening of zonal flow and therefore greater energy exchange between low and high latitudes and warm anomalies of sea surface temperature in November in the eastern equatorial Pacific. This analysis allowed us to define, predictors that were used to generate a multiple linear regression model using forward stepwise methodology which explained 28% of variance of summer precipitation.
Downloads
Downloads
Published
How to Cite
Issue
Section
License
To access the DECLARATION AND TRANSFER OF COPYRIGHT AUTHOR’S DECLARATION AND COPYRIGHT LICENSE click here.
Ethical Guidelines for Journal Publication
The Ciência e Natura journal is committed to ensuring ethics in publication and quality of articles.
Conformance to standards of ethical behavior is therefore expected of all parties involved: Authors, Editors, Reviewers, and the Publisher.
In particular,
Authors: Authors should present an objective discussion of the significance of research work as well as sufficient detail and references to permit others to replicate the experiments. Fraudulent or knowingly inaccurate statements constitute unethical behavior and are unacceptable. Review Articles should also be objective, comprehensive, and accurate accounts of the state of the art. The Authors should ensure that their work is entirely original works, and if the work and/or words of others have been used, this has been appropriately acknowledged. Plagiarism in all its forms constitutes unethical publishing behavior and is unacceptable. Submitting the same manuscript to more than one journal concurrently constitutes unethical publishing behavior and is unacceptable. Authors should not submit articles describing essentially the same research to more than one journal. The corresponding Author should ensure that there is a full consensus of all Co-authors in approving the final version of the paper and its submission for publication.
Editors: Editors should evaluate manuscripts exclusively on the basis of their academic merit. An Editor must not use unpublished information in the editor's own research without the express written consent of the Author. Editors should take reasonable responsive measures when ethical complaints have been presented concerning a submitted manuscript or published paper.
Reviewers: Any manuscripts received for review must be treated as confidential documents. Privileged information or ideas obtained through peer review must be kept confidential and not used for personal advantage. Reviewers should be conducted objectively, and observations should be formulated clearly with supporting arguments, so that Authors can use them for improving the paper. Any selected Reviewer who feels unqualified to review the research reported in a manuscript or knows that its prompt review will be impossible should notify the Editor and excuse himself from the review process. Reviewers should not consider manuscripts in which they have conflicts of interest resulting from competitive, collaborative, or other relationships or connections with any of the authors, companies, or institutions connected to the papers.
