Modelagem Climática Regional (Downscaling) e Aplicações em Energia Eólica: Variabilidade e Mudanças Climáticas
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5902/2179460X11580Abstract
Atualmente, os modelos atmosféricos de circulação geral (AGCMs) apresentam uma resolução espacial entre 100 e 200 km para previsões climáticas sazonais (e, eventualmente mais grosseira ainda quando se trata de estudos de mudanças climáticas). Para tomada de decisão ao nível regional/local, pelo estado ou pela sociedade civil, no entanto, há uma demanda por uma maior resolução nas previsões e cenários, já que a variabilidade espacial e temporal da precipitação associada com processos físicos não resolvidos em AGCMs (circulações atmosféricas de mesoescala) pode afetar de forma significativa determinada atividade econômica. O setor de energias renováveis, especialmente a energia eólica, cujo crescimento sobre o norte do Nordeste Brasileiro (NEB), especialmente sobre o Ceará, tem sido acentuado, também requer informação de alta resolução espacial para planejamento de suas ações na escala da variabilidade climática sazonal, bem como para avaliação dos potenciais impactos das mudanças climáticas antropogênicas sobre a disponibilidade dos recursos energéticos renováveis na região.Downloads
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