Frost occurrence in Rio Grande do Sul: variability and trends
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5902/2179460X94750Keywords:
Minimun air temperature, Risk, ENSOAbstract
Considering the significant losses caused by frost events to agricultural and livestock activities, this study aimed to analyze and characterize the variability in frost occurrence across the Ecoclimatic Regions of Rio Grande do Sul, in order to generate information useful for risk reduction. Frost occurrence was estimated based on minimum air temperature measured in a meteorological shelter (1961–2021). Days with minimum air temperature equal to or below 3°C were classified as frost days (FD). The results showed that frost is an adverse meteorological phenomenon for agriculture in Rio Grande do Sul, occurring in three of the four seasons, with high frequency and marked variability among regions. Winter is notably the season with the highest number of FD, as well as the greatest year-to-year variability. Spring exhibits more frost days than autumn. There is an association between the ENSO phenomenon and the number of frost days in the state, with variations depending on season and location. El Niño reduces the number of frost days, especially in winter; in autumn, the pattern is similar but weaker; in spring, no association is observed. Under La Niña, the association is less consistent than under El Niño and more variable across seasons and locations. Altitude is the geographic factor most strongly and positively correlated with the number of frost days in the state. No consistent long-term trend in the number of FD predominates across Rio Grande do Sul.
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