Characterizing the 2019-2021 drought in southern and southeastern Brazil using S-TRACK method

Authors

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.5902/2179460X87939

Keywords:

Precipitation deficit, Drought indexes, Spatial tracks, South America

Abstract

The period from 2019 to 2021 witnessed an enduring and severe drought that impacted southeast South America. Initially characterized as a meteorological drought, its influence later extended across the entire hydrological cycle. This paper explores the application of the S-TRACK method to monitor and characterize the 2019/21 drought in Southern Brazil (SB) and Southeast Brazil (SEB). Monthly precipitation data from reanalyses and satellites, alongside the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) for drought quantification, are utilized. Precipitation datasets, validated against rain gauge records, highlight ERA-5 and CHIRPS as having the highest correlation in SB, and CHIRPS and PERSIANN exhibiting the best agreement in SEB. The utilization of the S-TRACK method for spatial drought tracking revealed the temporal dynamics of the drought events, with three significant episodes occurring in 2020/2021. Initially, the onset of the drought was observed in the SB region, characterized by intensities ranging from moderate to extreme. Subsequently, the drought extended northward, reaching its maximum intensity at lower latitudes within the SEB region before either dissipating or experiencing a reduction in both its spatial extent and intensity. The S-TRACK analysis also revealed a pattern of spatial overlap of drought clusters indicating that drought conditions remained stationary for an extended period, especially for the March to May/2020 period.

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Author Biographies

Osmar Toledo Bonfim, Universidade Federal do Pampa

doutor (UFSM) e mestre (UFAL) em meteorologia, concentrando-se no mecanismo conhecido como Elevation-dependent Warming em regiões de montanhas, com destaque para a Cordilheira dos Andes. Utilizou ferramentas como a análise de dados provenientes de observações (in situ e de satélite) e modelos climáticos globais e regionais, explorando projeções em diferentes cenários de mudanças climáticas.

Vanessa Ferreira, Universidade Federal do Pampa

possui mestrado e doutorado em meteorologia pela UFSM. Tem experiência na área de meteorologia sinótica e de mesoescala, com ênfase em tempestades convectivas severas e eventos extremos. Além disso, trabalhou por dois anos na Direção Nacional de Águas do Uruguai, onde desenvolveu atividades como: previsão do tempo com foco na precipitação e seu impacto na bacia hidrográfica do Uruguai, elaboração de climatologia de eventos extremos de chuva e calibração do modelo WRF para melhorar a previsão da precipitação.

Rafael Maroneze, Universidade Federal do Pampa

possui mestrado e doutorado em Física pela UFSM, e é atualmente membro do corpo docente na Universidade Federal do Pampa. Sua pesquisa recente tem se concentrado principalmente na camada limite estável, e no desenvolvimento de modelos de fechamento de turbulência e parametrizações para camada limite. Ele foi pioneiro na implementação de um esquema inovador de camada limite dentro do modelo Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF).

Roilan Valdes, Engie Brasil Energia

Meteorologista formado pelo Instituto Superior de Tecnologías y Ciencias Aplicadas (InSTEC), La Habana, Cuba (2013). Mestre em Meteorologia na Universidade Federal de Santa Maria (UFSM), Santa Maria, Brasil (2016). Atua no desenvolvimento de pesquisas hidrológicas, com foco no impacto das mudanças de uso da terra no balanço hídrico e energético de bacias hidrográficas. Tem experiência em modelagem numérica: do tempo e clima, hidrológica e do rendimentos de culturas agrícolas e agrometeorologia.

Luca Mortarini, Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate

Possui doutorado em Fisica pela Università degli Studi di Torino PRINCIPALE(2006). Atualmente é Ricercatore III livello do Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche. Tem experiência na área de Geociências, com ênfase em Meteorologia.

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Published

2026-08-26

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Vol. 48 (2026): Publicação contínua

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