Performance Evaluation of Historical Simulations from CMIP6 Models in Representing Precipitation Regime in Southern Brazil

Authors

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.5902/2179460X87762

Keywords:

climate change, CMIP6, precipitation, global climate models, Southern Brazil

Abstract

This study assesses the performance of historical simulations from CMIP6 models in representing precipitation patterns in southern Brazil between 1982 and 2014, comparing these simulations with ERA5 reanalysis data. The results demonstrate a generally good agreement in the amplitudes of seasonal precipitation between CMIP6 and ERA5, except for Winter, where climate models underestimated rainfall percentiles. During the Summer, the ACCESS-CM2 and BCC-ESM1 models exhibited the strongest correlations. In the Winter and Autumn seasons, the NorESM2-MM model demonstrated the best performance in terms of correlation and standard deviation. However, for the Spring season, despite some models exhibiting strong correlation, there were disparities in the standard deviation. 

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Author Biographies

Osmar Evandro Toledo Bonfim, Universidade Federal de Alagoas - Instituto de Ciências Atmosféricas (ICAT)

PhD (UFSM) and Master's (UFAL) in meteorology, focusing on the mechanism known as Elevation-dependent Warming in mountainous regions, with a particular emphasis on the Andes Mountain Range. He utilized tools such as data analysis from observations (in situ and satellite) and global and regional climate models, exploring projections under different climate change scenarios. Additionally, he has expertise in statistical climatology, enabling him to identify oscillations, cycles, and climate trends, as well as extreme precipitation events in watersheds.

Rafael Maroneze, Universidade Federal do Pampa

master's and a doctorate in Physics from UFSM, and is currently a faculty member at the Federal University of Pampa. His recent research has focused mainly on the stable boundary layer and the development of turbulence closure models and parameterizations for the boundary layer. He pioneered the implementation of an innovative boundary layer scheme within the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Notably, this innovative approach includes prognostic equations for heat flux and temperature variation, making it the first WRF boundary layer scheme with this configuration. This boundary layer model significantly improves the ability to predict and respond to floods and the challenges associated with climate change. As climate change disrupts precipitation patterns, resulting in more intense and unpredictable rainfall events, Professor Maroneze's research significantly advances our understanding of atmospheric behavior. This understanding is crucial for accurate simulation and prediction of precipitation patterns. His work has resulted in the publication of nine articles in journals such as the Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, Boundary-Layer Meteorology, and Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society.

Vanessa Ferreira, Universidade Federal do Pampa

master's and a doctorate in meteorology from UFSM. He has experience in synoptic and mesoscale meteorology, with emphasis on severe convective storms and extreme events. Additionally, he worked for two years at the National Directorate of Waters of Uruguay, where he carried out activities such as: weather forecasting focusing on precipitation and its impact on the Uruguay watershed, elaboration of climatology of extreme rainfall events, and calibration of the WRF model to improve precipitation forecasting.

Thiago Ferreira Gomes, Universidade Federal do Pampa

Bachelor's degree in Cartographic and Surveying Engineering from the Federal University of Pampa (Unipampa), Itaqui-RS Campus. Currently pursuing a Master's degree in Engineering through the Graduate Program in Engineering (PPGEng) at the Federal University of Pampa, Alegrete-RS Campus.

Luca Mortarini, Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate

Ph.D. in Physics from the University of Turin PRINCIPALE(2006). Currently, they are a Ricercatore III livello at the Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche. They have experience in the field of Geosciences, with an emphasis on Meteorology."

References

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Firpo, M.A., Guimar˜aes, B.D.S., Dantas, L.G., Silva, M.G.B.D.,... & Oliveira, G.S.D.(2022). Assessment of CMIP6 models’ performance in simulating present day climate in Brazil. Frontiers in Climate, 4, 948499. DOI: 10.3389/fclim.2022.948499

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Pereima, M.F.R., Chaffe, P.L., de Amorim, P.B., & Rodrigues, R.R. (2022). A systematic analysis of climate model precipitation in southern Brazil. International Journal of Climatology, 42(8), 4240-4257. DOI: 10.1002/joc.7460

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Published

2024-12-16

How to Cite

Bonfim, O. E. T., Maroneze, R., Ferreira, V., Gomes, T. F., & Mortarini, L. (2024). Performance Evaluation of Historical Simulations from CMIP6 Models in Representing Precipitation Regime in Southern Brazil. Ciência E Natura, 46(esp. 2), e87762. https://doi.org/10.5902/2179460X87762

Issue

Vol. 46 No. esp. 2 (2024): XIII Workshop Brasileiro de Micrometeorologia

Section

Special Edition 2

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