CHARACTERISTICS OF THE RAINY SEASON IN MOZAMBIQUE AND PROBABILITY OF DRY SPELLS OCCURRENCE
Keywords:Wet Season. Dry periods. Clusters analysis.
The aim of this study is to determine the start and ending dates of the rainy season in Mozambique and analyze the probability of occurrence of significant dry periods, known as dry spells, during the rainy season. Daily precipitation data from 22 meteorological stations from the National Institute of Meteorology of Mozambique (INAM) distributed along the country were used for the period ranging from 1980 to 2012. The stations with the same characteristics in terms of intra seasonal regime of precipitation were clustered, by using the cluster’s analysis, and three homogeneous regions were found. From there, daily precipitation data were transformed in pentads and after that, thresholds that served as base to define the dry and wet conditions were determined. The results show that the date of start and ending of the rainy season in Mozambique varies from region to region and it can begin at the end of August through September (pentads 48 and 50) and finish between April to June. The probability of occurrence of dry period has increased during the transition phases of the rainy season all over the country.
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