ESTIMATES OF VOTES FOR DILMA ROUSSEFF IN 2010 ELECTIONS UNDER THE SCOPE OF THE BOLSA FAMÍLIA PROGRAM
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5902/2179460X16021Keywords:
Bolsa Família program. Percentage. Region Northeast. Beta regression model.Abstract
The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the impact of the Bolsa Família program’s expenses during the presidential elections of 2010. The beta regression model was adjusted in order to explain the percentage of valid votes from the Northeast region in Dilma Rousseff during the second round of the 2010 elections. Factors such as the poverty ratio, the municipal GDP, the percentage of votes Lula got in 2006 as well as the Bolsa Família program’s per capita spending all had a positive impact on the percentage of votes in Dilma in the 2010 elections. We’ve established the impact of the Bolsa Família program in the 2010 elections: had the program being given no budget during the 2010 elections, President Dilma would have lost approximately 2,125 million votes from the Northeast region.
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