Scientific models in times of pandemic
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5902/2179378643857Keywords:
Scientific models, Epidemiological models, COVID-19, Pandemic, Projection, Science in the mediaAbstract
The COVID-19 pandemic has given greater visibility to the work of epidemiologists, and in particular to the use of epidemiological models. Projections of the disease’s expansion, number of cases and its expected peak, are widely reported in the media. Public health policies, such as measures of social isolation, are justified to the population based on the need to ‘flatten the curve’, and to prevent the collapse of the health system. But the public is not informed about uses and limitations of models. The need to recalibrate models with new data and to revise projections are also poorly understood and sometimes become a source of frustration, fuelling scepticism towards scientific truth. In this article, I briefly discuss how philosophical reflection on the uses of models and their epistemic properties - cognition, explanation and understanding - can mitigate these problems.Downloads
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