Taking back the initiative: prospective intelligence and offensive capabilities enabling the proactive defense in the cyberspace
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5902/2357797595736Keywords:
Cyber sovereignty, Cyber power, Intelligence, Strategic prospective, Offensive cyber weaponsAbstract
Considering the application of cyber power, the states are currently divided into three groups. The first one consists of the liberal democracies, characterized by doubt, division and caution. The second comprises the authoritarian states, whose actions in cyberspace combine strategic vision, concealment and boldness. The third encompasses most of the remaining countries which, due to lack of capability, have little to no effective influence. In this scenario, cyber threats operate at large, taking risks and harming states, companies and individuals. This work hypothesis is that the use of prospective Cyber Intelligence, combined to the development of offensive cyber capabilities, forms the backbone of a strategy capable of aligning state, academia and industry, aimed to democratically strengthen security, contribute to strategic warning and challenge the freedom of action enjoyed by the cyber threats. After reviewing the concepts of sovereignty and power in cyberspace, the advantages of the attacker over the defender and the risks of a reactive posture will be analyzed, in order to explain the success that authoritarian states are achieving in cyber deterrence.
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