BUSINESS CYCLES IN LATIN AMERICAN ECONOMY: 1950-2007
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5902/2236117010591Palavras-chave:
Ciclo econômico, Economia Latino-americana, Modelo de Markov.Resumo
Esse artigo tem como objetivo avaliar a existência de ciclos comuns na América Latina entre 1950 e 2007. Nesse estudo, foi utilizada a técnica de mudança de regime Markoviano, que além das formulações univariadas e multivariadas foi testado arranjos bivariados. Os principais resultados indicam que é possível caracterizar os períodos de crescimento e recessão na Argentina, Brasil, Chile e México, especialmente nos dois choques do petróleo no início e fim dos anos 1970; na crise do Balanço de Pagamentos; e dos problemas de preços relativos. Devido à existência de causalidade foram testados modelos bivariados entre Argentina e Brasil, Chile e México. Os resultados sugerem que a existência de movimentos de ajuste das economias a choques exógenos interromperam a dinâmica dos ciclos de crescimento. Também foi possível identificar diferenças na velocidade do ajuste cíclico em cada economia.Downloads
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