Informational dependence and strategic autonomy in the Global South: AI and military decision support

IA y apoyo a la decisión militar

Abstract

This article examines how the adoption of generative artificial intelligence may create an informational dimension of technological dependence in military decision support for Global South states. Drawing on the literature on power, interdependence, and the organization of information, it distinguishes informational resources from their potential exercise as power and examines states’ capacity to govern decision-making processes. Eight systems were compared in two controlled experiments comprising 1,408 accepted responses: 448 political-identity assessments and 960 responses to six synthetic military crises involving Brazil, India, and South Africa. Results reveal differences in state representation across infrastructures, a 27.46-point range between the highest and lowest mean threat assessments, and variation in defensive-readiness recommendations. Critical instructions reduced mean threat by 3.58 points and readiness recommendations by 4.8 percentage points, while permission to use general context affected recommendations more strongly than numerical assessments. Functionally substitutable systems are therefore not necessarily informationally equivalent. The study does not demonstrate corporate exercise of power, influence on human decisions, or loss of state autonomy. Its contribution is to identify a potential vulnerability and propose accountability, particularly of human decision-makers, as a framework for governing the admissibility, use, and contestation of automated advice.