Intelligence as a factor in the prevention of hybrid warfare

Abstract

The technological transformation of contemporary conflicts has made it increasingly difficult to distinguish peace, crisis, coercion and war. Hybrid warfare combines military and non-military, overt and covert, conventional and unconventional means, while exploiting political, social, economic, technological and informational vulnerabilities. This article examines intelligence as a preventive capability and asks to what extent timely intelligence production and dissemination can reduce the likelihood of success of a hybrid campaign and contribute to preventing escalation. It argues that intelligence is not merely a tool for threat detection, but a strategic capability for anticipation, vulnerability assessment, early warning, decision support and response coordination. The research adopts a qualitative approach based on a review of specialized literature, documentary analysis and a comparative assessment of recent NATO, European Union and international policy documents, complemented by an analysis of implications for Global South states. The article argues that prevention in hybrid environments depends less on the availability of information than on the ability to transform dispersed signals into actionable knowledge, share it across institutions and convert it into resilience. It concludes that intelligence can become a factor of hybrid warfare prevention when embedded in a whole-of-society security architecture that is technologically enabled, legally constrained and adapted to the political and institutional specificities of the Global South.