From reaction to anticipation: strategic foresight as a structuring axis for the integration of defense and public security

Abstract

This article examines how strategic foresight can contribute to strengthening state anticipatory capacities at the intersection of Defense and Public Security in the face of the growing complexity of transnational organized crime. It is a qualitative, exploratory, bibliographic, and documentary study, complemented by an exploratory review of national and international literature on strategic foresight applied to public security. The study discusses the conceptual foundations of strategic foresight and anticipatory governance, examines the Brazilian normative and institutional framework related to the interface between Defense, Intelligence, and Public Security, and systematizes relevant foresight-based studies addressing the research problem. The findings indicate that, although the culture of strategic planning and anticipation is relatively more consolidated within the Defense sector, the systematic incorporation of prospective capacities into Brazilian public security remains limited, particularly in addressing complex, adaptive, and transnational threats. The article concludes that strategic foresight can contribute to enhancing state anticipatory, adaptive, and interinstitutional coordination capacities, reducing vulnerabilities associated with strategic surprise and providing a promising foundation for further analytical and institutional development at the intersection of Defense and Public Security.