Uso do Modelo Sarima na Previsão do Número de Focos de Calor para os meses de Junho a Outubro no Estado de Mato Grosso

Mariano Martinez Espinosa, Silvia Maria Prado, Maikelli Ghellere

Abstract


The great number of fires in Brazil especially during the summermonths between June and October, have caused national and internationalconcern. Particularly in the State of Mato Grosso, there have been a highnumber of fires over the last few years. Thus, the purpose of this work is tocarry out forecasts of the fires for the summer months between June andOctober in the State of Mato Grosso. We will use descriptive statistics andtime series, considering the data of fires of the last 17 years in the State ofMato Grosso supplied by the National Space Research Institute [InstitutoNacional de Pesquisas Espaciais] (INPE). The results demonstrate that theSARIMA model is the most suitable to make forecasts during such months.



DOI: https://doi.org/10.5902/2179460X9482

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