Uso do Modelo Sarima na Previsão do Número de Focos de Calor para os meses de Junho a Outubro no Estado de Mato Grosso

Authors

  • Mariano Martinez Espinosa Universidade Federal de Mato Grosso
  • Silvia Maria Prado Universidade Federal de Mato Grosso
  • Maikelli Ghellere Universidade Federal de Mato Grosso

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.5902/2179460X9482

Abstract

The great number of fires in Brazil especially during the summermonths between June and October, have caused national and internationalconcern. Particularly in the State of Mato Grosso, there have been a highnumber of fires over the last few years. Thus, the purpose of this work is tocarry out forecasts of the fires for the summer months between June andOctober in the State of Mato Grosso. We will use descriptive statistics andtime series, considering the data of fires of the last 17 years in the State ofMato Grosso supplied by the National Space Research Institute [InstitutoNacional de Pesquisas Espaciais] (INPE). The results demonstrate that theSARIMA model is the most suitable to make forecasts during such months.

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Author Biographies

Mariano Martinez Espinosa, Universidade Federal de Mato Grosso

Prof. efetivo adjunto do Departamento de Estatística/ICET/UFMT. Pós-Doutor em confiabilidade pela USP. Doutor em Ciencias e engenharia de Materiais pela USP. Mestre em estatística pela USP. Bacharel em estatística pela UFSCar. Área de atuação: Probabilidade e estatística téorica e aplicada, amostragem, modelos lineares e não lineares, planejamento de experimentos, Análise multivariada, controle de qualidade, inferência clássica e bayesiana.

Silvia Maria Prado, Universidade Federal de Mato Grosso

Professora efetiva assitente do Departamento de Estatística/ICET/UFMT. Doutoranda em Estatística pela UFSCar Mestre em estatística pela USP. Bacharel em estatística pela UFSCar.

Maikelli Ghellere, Universidade Federal de Mato Grosso

Engenharia Florestal, FENT-UFMT

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Published

2010-12-07

How to Cite

Martinez Espinosa, M., Prado, S. M., & Ghellere, M. (2010). Uso do Modelo Sarima na Previsão do Número de Focos de Calor para os meses de Junho a Outubro no Estado de Mato Grosso. Ciência E Natura, 32(2), 07–21. https://doi.org/10.5902/2179460X9482

Issue

Vol. 32 No. 2 (2010)

Section

Statistics

License

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