Evaluation of the stability forecast in the atmospheric surface layer of the WRF model and effects on the forecast of wind generation in Uruguay
Keywords:Stability, Forecast, Wind
This work evaluates forecasts of vertical stability of the surface atmospheric layer obtained with the WRF regional model in Uruguay, for different times of the day and seasons of the year. The temperature and humidity values obtained from the model outputs and from field measurements at different heights in an anemometric tower allow to calculate the vertical gradient of virtual static stability both for predictions and field measurements. With the results obtained, it was possible to know the behavior of the WRF model in relation to the stability of the surface layer, which is closely related to the wind potential that may exist at different times of the day. In this way, a possible relationship between the systematic errors of forecasts of wind power and surface layer stability in Uruguay can be proposed.
CAZES G., ORTELLI S. MINIMUM-COST NUMERICAL PREDICTION SYSTEM FOR WINDPOWER IN URUGUAY, WITH AN ASSESSMENT OF THE DIURNAL AND SEASONAL CYCLES OFITS QUALITY. Ciência e Natura Santa Maria Edição Especial: X Workshop Brasileiro, 40:205–210. 2018.
DE MELLO S., CAZES G., GUTIERREZ A. Operational wind energy forecast with power as-similation. Brazil. International Conference on Wind Engineering, 2015.
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