Ranqueamento de sistemas de produtos baseado na avaliação da sustentabilidade do ciclo de vida: tomada de decisão estocástica baseada em múltiplos critérios
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5902/1983465955294Palavras-chave:
Life cycle sustainability assessment, Multiple criteria decision analysis, Uncertainty, Decision-making.Resumo
Propósito – A avaliação de sustentabilidade do ciclo de vida (LCSA) fornece informações úteis e abrangentes sobre o desempenho de um sistema de produtos. Entretanto, existem alguns desafios associado ao processo de tomada de decisão envolvendo esses resultados: (i) indicadores multidimensionais, (ii) objetivos conflitantes e (iii) incerteza associada à avaliação de desempenho. Esta pesquisa propõe uma abordagem que considera a incerteza do desempenho em termos de sustentabilidade do ciclo de vida através do processo de análise de decisão baseado em múltiplos critérios (MCDA) para apoiar a tomada de decisão.
Metodologia – Nosso método está estruturado em três fases: i) avaliação da incerteza do desempenho obtido por meio da LCSA, ii) propagação da incerteza da LCSA nos métodos MCDA e iii) interpretação dos resultados estocásticos. A abordagem foi aplicada em um estudo de caso ilustrativo, classificando quatro alternativas de fornecimento de biodiesel.
Resultados – A recomendação gerada por esta abordagem fornece uma informação sobre a confiança que o tomador de decisão pode ter em um determinado resultado (classificação de soluções) sob a forma de uma probabilidade, proporcionando um melhor conhecimento do risco (neste caso devido à incerteza da solução preferida). Assim, os resultados estocásticos, se interpretados de forma adequada, fornecem uma medida da robustez dos rankings gerados pelos métodos MCDA, superando a limitação do excesso de confiança dos rankings determinísticos.
Originalidade – As contribuições fundamentais deste artigo são (i) integrar a incerteza da LCSA nos processos de tomada de decisão por meio da abordagem MCDA; (ii) fornecer uma análise de sensibilidade sobre a escolha do método MCDA, (iii) apoiar as escolhas de preferência dos tomadores de decisão por meio de um processo de elicitação transparente e (iv) fornecer uma plataforma de tomada de decisão prática que contabiliza simultaneamente os desempenhos das performances LCSA incertas com julgamentos de valor das partes interessadas.
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