Eficiência de mercado: uma aplicação no setor sucroalcooleiro da Paraíba
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5902/1983465939181Parole chiave:
Eficiência de Mercado, Cointegração, Setor Sucroalcooleiro.Abstract
Objetivo – Este artigo tem como principal objetivo analisar a eficiência do mercado de açúcar e etanol da Paraíba, mediante o teste de cointegração.
Design/metodologia/abordagem – Para tanto, utilizaram-se séries históricas do açúcar e etanol do mercado paraibano, coletados na BM&FBOVESPA e na CEPEA. Quanto aos métodos, aplicaram-se as métricas de Estatísticas Descritiva para descrever os comportamentos das séries, o Teste Raiz Unitária Aumentado de Dickey-Fuller para verificar a estacionariedade, e por fim o Teste de Cointegração, para analisar a relação a longo prazo.
Resultados – Os resultados indicaram um comportamento com diversos movimentos oscilatórios nos preços das séries. Quanto a estacionariedade das séries, as variáveis à vista e futuro do mercado paraibano, apresentou-se processo não estacionário. Por fim, as séries estimaram-se que não há cointegração. Podendo assim, concluir que o setor sucroalcooleiro do mercado paraibano é ineficiente, ou seja, as commodities desviar o valor real de mercado.
Implicações/limitações da pesquisa – No desdobramento desta pesquisa, ficou evidente uma limitação no decorrer da fase exploratória, como: Restrições no período dos dados do açúcar e etanol hidratado disponíveis na CEPEA e BM&FBOVESPA, principalmente no que se refere as variáveis de preço à vista e futuro do mercado paraibano.
Implicações práticas – Nesta pesquisa, podem-se constatar que o mercado paraibano seria considerado eficiente se refletisse as informações disponíveis nos preços das commodities, impossibilitando ganhos anormais.
Originalidade/valor – Estudo sobre eficiência de mercado é relevante, pois possibilita identificar padrões de comportamento dos preços de ativos no mercado. Isto é, podem avaliar se os preços dos ativos sendo supervalorizadas e como isso afeta o investidor e a economia brasileira.
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