Strategic autonomy, dependence and drones: lessons for Brazil from Ukraine

Abstract

The Russian–Ukrainian War (2022–2026) has placed low-cost unmanned aerial systems, particularly first-person view (FPV) drones, at the heart of contemporary military innovation, with implications for middle powers in the Global South. This article investigates the extent to which the development and acquisition of drones can enhance Brazil’s strategic autonomy and reduce its structural technological dependence in the defence sector. Methodologically, the study adopts a qualitative case study approach, using the Ukrainian experience as a case study to shed light on Brazil’s trajectory, drawing on literature concerning strategic autonomy, technological dependence and the defence industrial base, as well as recent documentary and institutional sources. It was found that Ukraine’s advantage stemmed less from the sophistication of its platforms and more from its ability to sustain decentralised industrial ecosystems for the mass production of simple components, with strong civil-military integration. The Brazilian trajectory (2008–2026), by contrast, remains anchored in the procurement of systems with medium and high unit value from a single external supplier, although recent national programmes signal an incipient shift. Four structural tensions can thus be identified that create a gap between the rhetoric of technological sovereignty and its implementation: 1. scale versus sophistication, 2. centralised versus decentralised innovation, 3. declaratory versus effective autonomy, and 4. Bilateral dependence versus multilateral diversification. It can be concluded that strategic autonomy in the field of drones depends less on the possession of individual systems than on the long-term maintenance of autonomous production and doctrinal ecosystems, which can be converted into foreign policy assets.