The impact of emerging technologies on a National Security Strategy

Abstract

This article analyses the impact of emerging technologies on the formulation and implementation of a National Security Strategy (NSS), focusing on the relationship between internal security, national defence, intelligence and technological transformation. The study assumes that advances in artificial intelligence, big data, quantum computing, autonomous systems, the Internet of Things, space technologies, cybersecurity and other dual-use technologies simultaneously transform the State’s protection capabilities and the vulnerabilities it faces. Methodologically, it adopts a qualitative, theoretical-analytical and documentary approach, combining security and strategy literature with Portuguese and European legal and strategic instruments and recent documents produced by international organisations. The central argument is that emerging technologies should not be incorporated into an NSS merely as technical tools, but as structural elements of the State’s strategic capacity. The findings indicate that their impact is expressed through four interdependent dimensions: anticipation and intelligence; protection of critical infrastructures and cyberspace; decision-making and response capacity; and technological autonomy and sovereignty. The article concludes that an NSS suited to the contemporary security environment must combine innovation, resilience, interoperability, technological autonomy, cooperation and democratic governance, while ensuring human oversight, proportionality and protection of fundamental rights.