The war in Ukraine as a catalyst for the energy transition and multipolarity in the international system

Abstract

The 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine represented a watershed moment for the international order, simultaneously impacting European energy security and the configuration of the multipolar system. This paper analyzes how the conflict influenced the European Union’s (EU) energy transition and the geopolitical dynamics associated with the global balance of power. Regarding the energy sector, sanctions against Russia and the reduction of natural gas supplies to the EU led to a temporary resurgence of fossil fuels, such as coal. However, this shock served to accelerate investments in renewable energy and expand the search for extra-regional partners, aiming to reduce structural dependency on Moscow (Lemos, 2024; Castilho, 2022). Geopolitically, the conflict highlighted Russia’s strategic pivot toward Asia and intensified the confrontation with U.S. hegemony. From the perspective of Mearsheimer’s offensive realism (2001), the war is understood as a struggle for influence within the balance of power, revealing trends toward the multipolarization of the global order (Carmona, 2022). Methodologically, the study employs a literature review and document analysis.