A complexidade da cooperação climática internacional
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5902/2357797574226Palavras-chave:
Cooperação climática internacional, Teoria dos jogos, Dilemas da ação coletiva, Racionalidade neoclássica, Sistemas adaptativos complexosResumo
Embora existam vários esforços coletivos para enfrentar o problema das mudanças climáticas, as principais iniciativas, como o Protocolo de Quioto e o Acordo de Paris, não têm apresentado resultados satisfatórios até o momento. A dificuldade em envolver os Estados em práticas cooperativas coordenadas efetivas pode ser explicada como consequência da racionalidade neoclássica, uma vez que a caracterização dos Estados como entidades dotadas de racionalidade os vincul a situações como o jogo do Dilema do Prisioneiro (DP), bem como os dilemas da ação coletiva relacionados a esse jogo. Existem modelos que fornecem maneiras de contornar o PD e promover a cooperação entre agentes racionais egoístas, como por exemplo a aplicação de estratégias baseadas na reciprocidade (Tit-for-Tat) em jogos iterados. No entanto, essas abordagens não evitam a racionalidade neoclássica de curto prazo, que está na raiz do problema. Assim, para desenvolver abordagens mais produtivas para o desenvolvimento de políticas globais para lidar com a mudança climática, apresento uma caracterização do sistema político internacional como um sistema adaptativo complexo (CAS) e argumento que essa perspectiva, acompanhada de modelos baseados em jogos evolutivos em vez de jogos iterados, fornece uma abordagem mais promissora.
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