Methodology for determining classes of forest fire risk using the modified Monte Alegre Formula
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5902/1980509839899Schlagworte:
FMA⁺, Wildfire, StatisticsAbstract
The objective of this study was to calculate the Modified Monte Alegre Formula (FMA⁺) and adjust the wildfire risk classes of areas of forests planted in the northern-central coast of the state of Espírito Santo state and the southern coast of Bahia state. The methodology used included six stages: risk calculation; spreadsheet development according to the occurrence, or not, of forest fires; spreadsheet development according to the wildfire season in the study region; risk class definition; result analysis of the determined classes; best fit selection. It was observed that the class definition methodology for the FMA⁺ system obtained excellent results. It increased by 19.3, 21.53, and 31.3% for the percentage of success for subzones 1, 2, and 3, respectively, which implies this an important study for the successful implementation of FMA⁺ in other areas.
Downloads
Literaturhinweise
BEDIA, J. et al. Sensitivity of Fire Weather Index to different reanalysis products in the Iberian Peninsula. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, [s. l.], v. 12, p. 699-708, 2012.
BORGES, T. E. et al. Desempenho de alguns índices de risco de incêndios em plantios de eucalipto no norte do Espírito Santo. Floresta e Ambiente, Seropédica, v. 18, n. 2, p. 153-159, 2011.
CHANG, Y. et al. Environmental controls on the characteristics of mean number of forest fires and mean forest area burned (1987-2007) in China. Forest Ecology and Managment, [s. l.],v. 356, p. 13-21, 2015.
DÍAZ-DELGADO, R. Caracterización mediante teledetección del régimen de incêndios forestales em Cataluña (periodo 1975-98) y su influencia em los procesos de regeneración. 2000. Thesis (Doctorate) - University of Barcelona, Barcelona, 2000.
DIMITRAKOPOULOS, A.; BEMMERZOUK, A.; MITSOUPOLOULOS, I. Evaluation of the Canadian fire weather index system in a eastern Mediterranean environment. Meteorological Applications, Reading, v. 18, p. 83-93, 2011. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1002/met.214
DUGUY, B. et al. Effects of climate and extreme events on wild fi re regime and their ecological impacts. In: NAVARRA, A.; TUBIANA, L. (ed.). Regional assessment of climate change in the Mediterranean. Netherlands: Springer, 2013. v. 2. (Advances in Global Change Research, 51).
DUGUY, B. Interacción de la historia de usos del suelo y el fuego en condiciones mediterráneas: respuesta de los ecosistemas y estructura del paisaje. 2003. Thesis (Doctorate) - Universidad de Alicante, Alicante, 2003.
EUGENIO, F. C. et al. Causal, temporal and spatial statistics of forest fires in areas of planted forests in Brazil. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, Amsterdam, v. 266, p. 157-172, 2019.
FLANNIGAN, M. D.; HARRINGTON, J. B. A study of the relation of meteorological variables to monthly provincial area burned by wild fi re in Canada (1953–80). Journal of Applied Meteorology, Boston, v. 27, p. 441-452, 1988.
HOLSTEN, A. et al. Evaluation of the performance of meteorological forest fire indices for German federal states. Forest Ecology and Management, Amsterdam, v. 287, p. 123-131, 2013.
HOSMER, D. W.; LEMESHOW, S. Applied Logistic Regression. 2nd ed. Wiley: New York, 2000.
KRAWCHUK, M. A. et al. Global pyrogeography: The current and future distribution of wildfire. PLoS ONE, [s. l.], v. 4, n. 4, p. e5102, 2009.
NUNES, J. R. S. et al. Análise da fórmula de monte alegre (fma) e da fórmula de monte alegre alterada (FMA+) no distrito florestal de monte alegre. Floresta, Curitiba, v. 40, n. 2, p. 319-326, 2010.
NUNES, J. R. S.; SOARES, R. V.; BATISTA, A. C. Análise da fórmula de monte alegre (FMA+) para o estado do Paraná. Floresta, Curitiba, v. 39, n. 3, p. 473-484, 2009.
NUNES, J. R. S.; SOARES, R. V.; BATISTA, A. C. FMA+ - Um Novo Índice de Perigo de Incêndios Florestais para o Estado do Paraná – Brasil. Floresta, Curitiba, v. 36, n. 1, p. 178-179, 2006.
PAUSAS, J. G.; KEELEY, J. E. A. Burning story: the role of fi re in the history of life. Bioscience, Washington, v. 59, n. 7, p. 593-601, 2009.
PEREIRA, J. F.; BATISTA, A. C.; SOARES, R. V. Variação da umidade combustível florestal em função de índices de perigo de incêndios. CERNE, Lavras, v. 18, n. 3, p. 371-376, 2012.
PEREIRA, M. G. et al. Synoptic patterns associated with large summer forest fires in Portugal. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, [s. l.], v. 129, p. 11-25, 2005.
PIÑOL, J.; TERRADAS. J.; LLORET, F. Climate warming, wild fi re hazard, and wild fi re occurrence in coastal eastern Spain. Climatic Change, [s. l.], v. 38, n. 3, p. 345-357, 1998.
RODRÍGUEZ, M. P. R. et al. Ajuste e desempenho dos índices de perigo de incêndios Nesterov, FMA e FMA+ na empresa florestal Macujire, Cuba, Floresta, Curitiba, v. 42, n. 4, p. 651-660, 2012.
SAMPAIO, O. B. Análise da eficiência de quatro índices na previsão de incêndios florestais para a região de Agudos – SP. 1999. Tese (Doutorado) - Universidade Federal do Paraná, Curitiba, 1999. 157 p.
SAN-MIGUEL-AYANZ, J.; MORENO, J. M.; CAMIA, A. Analysis of large fires in European Mediterranean landscapes: Lessons learned and perspectives. Forest Ecology and Management, Amsterdam, v. 294, p. 11-22, 2013.
SKINNER, W. R. et al. The association between circulation anomalies in the mid-troposphere and area burned by wildland fire in Canada. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, Wien, v. 63, p. 89-105, 1999.
SORIANO, B. M. A.; DANIEL, O.; SANTOS, S. A. Eficiência de índices de risco de incêndios para o pantanal Sul-Mato-Grossense. Ciência Florestal, Santa Maria, v. 25, n. 4, p. 809-816, 2015.
SOUZA, A. P.; CASAVECCHIA, B. H.; STANGERLIN, D. M. Avaliação dos riscos de ocorrência de incêndios Florestais nas regiões Norte e Noroeste da Amazônia Matogrossense. Scientia Plena, [s. l.], v. 8, n. 5, p. 1-14, 2012.
SOUZA, J. I. Comportamento e ajustes dos índices de perigo de incêndio – FMA e FMA+ para o município de Lages-SC. 2014. Dissertação (Mestrado em Engenharia Florestal) – Universidade Estadual de Santa Catarina, Lages, 2014.
VÁZQUEZ, A.; MORENO, J. M. Sensitivity of fire occurrence to meteorological variables in Mediterranean and Atlantic areas of Spain. Landscape and Urban Planning, Amsterdam, v. 24, p. 129-142, 1993.
VÁZQUEZ, A.; MORENO, J. M. Spatial distribution of forest fires in Sierra de Gredos Central Spain. Forest Ecology and Management, Amsterdam, v. 147, p. 55-65, 2001.
VIEGAS, D. X. et al. Calibração do sistema canadiano de perigo de incêndio para aplicação em Portugal. Silva Lusitana, Oeiras, v. 12, n. 1, p. 77-93, 2004.
VIEGAS, D. X. et al. Estimating live fine fuels moisture content using meteorologically based indices. International Journal of Wildland Fire, Rosyn, v. 10, p. 223-240, 2001.
VIEGAS, D. X.; VIEGAS, M. T. A relationship between rainfall and burned area for Portugal. International Journal of Wildland Fire, Rosyn, v. 4, p. 11-16, 1994.
VIEGAS, D. X.; VIEGAS, M. T.; FERREIRA, A. D. Moisture content of fine forest fuels and fire occurrence in Central Portugal. International Journal of Wildland Fire, Rosyn, v. 2, p. 69-86, 1992.
WHITE, A. A. S.; WHITE, B. L. A.; RIBEIRO, G. T. Evaluation of forest fire danger indexes for eucalypt plantations in Bahia. Brazil. International Journal of Forestry Research, [s. l.], v. 2015, ID 613736, 2015.
WHITE, B. L. A. et al. Development of a fire danger index for eucalypt plantations in the northern coast of Bahia, Brazil. Floresta, Curitiba, v. 43, n. 4, p. 601-610, 2013.
Downloads
Veröffentlicht
Zitationsvorschlag
Ausgabe
Rubrik
Lizenz
A CIÊNCIA FLORESTAL se reserva o direito de efetuar, nos originais, alterações de ordem normativa, ortográfica e gramatical, com vistas a manter o padrão culto da lingua, respeitando, porém, o estilo dos autores.
As provas finais poderão ou não ser enviadas ao autor.
Os trabalhos publicados passam a ser propriedade da revista CIÊNCIA FLORESTAL, sendo permitida a reprodução parcial ou total dos trabalhos, desde que a fonte seja citada. Os originais não serão devolvidos aos autores.
As opiniões emitidas pelos autores dos trabalhos são de sua exclusiva responsabilidade.
