DYNAMIC AND IMPLICIT STOCHASTIC OPTIMIZATION FOR RESERVOIR OPERATION: CASE STUDY IN SERGIPE

Alcigeimes Celeste, Raul Fontes Santana, Wesley Medeiros Santos

Abstract


Water supply reservoirs are usually operated in accordance with so-called rule curves, which decide the ratio of demand to be met based on current conditions. This paper assesses the suitability of implicit stochastic optimization (ISO) against stochastic dynamic programming (SDP) to set up reservoir release policies. The case study is the largest reservoir in the state of Sergipe, Brazil. The models are applied to operate the reservoir under several possible 100-year inflow scenarios. Operations are also carried out by the standard operating policy (SOP) of reservoirs and by deterministic optimization based on perfect inflow forecast (PFDO), the latter used as a benchmark. In all of the 100 scenarios utilized, the performance of both SPD and ISO is superior to that of SOP and close to that of PFDO. Furthermore, the simple ISO shows to perform similarly to the more complex SDP.


Keywords


Reservatórios; otimização; estocasticidade; curvas-guia; operação



DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5902/2179460X17169

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