EXTREME PRECIPITATION EPISODE IN RIO DE JANEIRO: SYNOPTIC ANALYSIS, NUMERICAL SIMULATION AND COMPARISON AMONG PREVIOUS EVENTS
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5902/2179460X16236Keywords:
Evento extremo, modelo numérico, previsibilidadeAbstract
http://dx.doi.org/10.5902/2179460X16236
The purpose of this study is to analyze the synoptic pattern and to verify the skill of numerical models (ETA15km, BRAMS20km and GFS) for intense rainfall event in the coastal of São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro states, Baixada Fluminense and the Mountain Region of Rio de Janeiro in march 17-18, 2013. In some places the rainfall in 24 hours exceeded 100 mm, reaching maximum of 424.5 mm in Petropolis. An objective tool was used for obtaining synoptic patterns occurred in the past similar to the extreme event studied. Heavy precipitation was caused by the presence of a cold front associated with intense low levels circulation, contributing for moisture advection from Atlantic Ocean toward the continent. The regional numerical models satisfactorily predicted the heavy rainfall episode. However, the intensity and location of heavy rainfall is still a challenge for numerical modeling.
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