Emissões de CO2: uma análise estrutural dinâmica
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5902/1983465963884Palavras-chave:
COVID-19, Emissão de dióxido de carbono, Crescimento Econômico, População, Consumo de energia.Resumo
Objetivo - O objetivo deste artigo é analisar o impacto do consumo de energia e do crescimento econômico sobre a emissão de CO2 em escala mundial e apresentar a evolução temporária da emissão de CO2 durante a pandemia.
Design/metodologia/abordagem - A amostra final foi composta por 72 países, observados por um período de 15 anos, os dados foram coletados na base de dados do Banco Mundial. A análise é realizada através de um modelo estrutural de painel de dados dinâmicos com efeitos fixos estimados por Maximum Likelihood.
Resultados - Os resultados indicam que o consumo de energia afeta direta e positivamente a emissão de CO2. O PIB per capita apresenta um efeito duplo, i) afeta direta e negativamente a emissão de CO2 e ii) de forma indireta pelo caminho do consumo de energia apresenta um efeito positivo contribuindo para o aumento da emissão de CO2. Efeito duplo sobre a emissão de carbono também é identificado para o capital fixo, i) efeito direto e indireto positivo sobre a emissão de CO2 e ii) efeito indireto negativo via PIB per capita. Ainda, a população afeta direta e positivamente as emissões de CO2 e, sob outra perspectiva, se confirma influência indireta da população, reduzindo as emissões de CO2 via consumo de energia.
Originalidade - Conclui-se que a redução das atividades humanas devido ao confinamento forçado, afetou o uso global de energia e contribuiu para redução das emissões de CO2, neste período. Sugere-se aos governantes e a população em geral a adoção de medidas pós-pandemia relacionadas ao desenvolvimento de tecnologia energética por fontes alternativas de energia.
Downloads
Referências
Abbas, Q., Nurunnabi, M., Alfakhri, Y., Khan, W., Hussain, A., & Iqbal, W (2020). The role of fixed capital formation, renewable and non-renewable energy in economic growth and carbon emission: a case study of Belt and Road Initiative project. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 1-11. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-020-10413-y
Akram, R., Chen, F., Khalid, F., Ye, Z., & Majeed, M. T (2020). Heterogeneous effects of energy efficiency and renewable energy on carbon emissions: Evidence from developing countries. Journal of Cleaner Production, 247, 119122. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2019.119122
Anjum, N. A (2020). Good in the worst: COVID-19 restrictions and ease in global air pollution. DOI: 10.20944/preprints202004.0069.v1
Arora, S., Bhaukhandi, K. D., & Mishra, P. K (2020). Coronavirus lockdown helped the environment to bounce back. Science of the Total Environment, 140573. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.140573
Boretti, A (2020). Covid 19 impact on atmospheric CO2 concentration. International Journal of Global Warming, 21(3), 317-323. https://doi.org/10.1504/IJGW.2020.108686
Diffenbaugh, N. S., Field, C. B., Appel, E. A., Azevedo, I. L., Baldocchi, D. D., Burke, M., ... & Fletcher, S. M (2020). The COVID-19 lockdowns: a window into the Earth System. Nature Reviews Earth & Environment, 1-12. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43017-020-0079-1
Energy Information Administration (2020). Short-term Energy Outlook. https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/
Farabi, A., Abdullah, A., & Setianto, R. H (2019). Energy consumption, carbon emissions and economic growth in Indonesia and Malaysia. International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 9(3), 338. https://doi.org/10.32479/ijeep.6573
Forster, P. M., Forster, H. I., Evans, M. J., Gidden, M. J., Jones, C. D., Keller, C. A., ... & Schleussner, C. F (2020). Current and future global climate impacts resulting from COVID-19. Nature Climate Change, 1-7. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-020-0883-0
Gessesse, A. T., & He, G (2020). Analysis of carbon dioxide emissions, energy consumption, and economic growth in China. Agricultural Economics, 66(4), 183-192. https://doi.org/10.17221/258/2019-AGRICECON
Gillingham, K. T., Knittel, C. R., Li, J., Ovaere, M., & Reguant, M (2020). The Short-run and Long-run Effects of Covid-19 on Energy and the Environment. Joule, 4(7), 1337-1341. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.joule.2020.06.010
Global Carbon Project (2020). Temporary Reduction in CO2 Emissions during COVID-19. https://www.globalcarbonproject.org/
International Monetary Fund (2020). World Economic Outlook April 2020. https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2020/04/14/weo-april-2020
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2020). Data Distribution Centre. http://www.ipcc-data.org/guidelines/pages/glossary/glossary_hi.html
John Hopkins University of Medicine (2020). COVID-19 Case Tracker. https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/
Khan, Z. U., Ahmad, M., & Khan, A (2020). On the remittances-environment led hypothesis: Empirical evidence from BRICS economies. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 1-12. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-020-07999-8
Le Quéré, C., Jackson, R. B., Jones, M. W., Smith, A. J., Abernethy, S., Andrew, R. M., ... & Friedlingstein, P (2020). Temporary reduction in daily global CO 2 emissions during the COVID-19 forced confinement. Nature Climate Change, 1-7. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-020-0797-x
Liu, Z., Deng, Z., Ciais, P., Lei, R., Davis, S. J., Feng, S., ... & Zhu, B (2020). COVID-19 causes record decline in global CO2 emissions. https://escholarship.org/uc/item/2fv7n055
Mohmmed, A., Li, Z., Arowolo, A. O., Su, H., Deng, X., Najmuddin, O., & Zhang, Y (2019). Driving factors of CO2 emissions and nexus with economic growth, development and human health in the Top Ten emitting countries. Resources, Conservation and Recycling, 148, 157-169. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resconrec.2019.03.048
Mitra, A., Ray Chadhuri, T., Mitra, A., Pramanick, P., & Zaman, S (2020). Impact of COVID-19 related shutdown on atmospheric carbon dioxide level in the city of Kolkata. Parana Journal of Science and Education, 6(3), 84-92. https://drive.google.com/file/d/14h1ZOGeFnmH66Qd1dLOjSYv6xIavyqxR/view
Muhammad, B (2019). Energy consumption, CO2 emissions and economic growth in developed, emerging and Middle East and North Africa countries. Energy, 179, 232-245. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2019.03.126
Musah, M., Kong, Y., Mensah, I. A., Antwi, S. K., & Donkor, M (2020). The link between carbon emissions, renewable energy consumption, and economic growth: a heterogeneous panel evidence from West Africa. Environmental Science and Pollution Research International. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-020-08488-8
Pala, A (2020). Energy and economic growth in G20 countries: Panel cointegration analysis. Economics and Business Letters, 9(2), 56-72. https://doi.org/10.17811/ebl.9.2.2020.56-72
Rahman, M. M., & Vu, X. B (2020). The nexus between renewable energy, economic growth, trade, urbanisation and environmental quality: A comparative study for Australia and Canada. Renewable Energy. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.2020.03.135
Rosseel, Y (2012). Lavaan: An R package for structural equation modeling and more. Version 0.5–12 (BETA). Journal of statistical software, 48(2), 1-36. https://users.ugent.be/~yrosseel/lavaan/lavaanIntroduction.pdf
Salazar-Núñez, H. F., Venegas-Martínez, F., & Tinoco-Zermeño, M. Á (2020). Impact of energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions on economic growth: cointegrated panel data in 79 countries grouped by income level. International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 10(2), 218-226. 10.32479/ijeep.8783
Shaari, M. S., Abdul Karim, Z., & Zainol Abidin, N (2020). The Effects of Energy Consumption and National Output on CO2 Emissions: New Evidence from OIC Countries Using a Panel ARDL Analysis. Sustainability, 12(8), 3312. https://doi.org/10.3390/su12083312
Tracker, C. A (2020). A government roadmap for addressing the climate and post COVID-19 economic crises. http://www.acamedia.info/sciences/sciliterature/globalw/reference/climate_action_tracker/CAT_2020-04-27_Briefing_COVID19_Apr2020.pdf
Vaca, P., & Cartuche, I (2018). Relación entre las emisiones de CO2 y el grado de urbanización a nivel global y entre grupos de países: un enfoque usando técnicas econométricas avanzadas de datos de panel. Revista Vista Económica, 5(1), 82-89. https://revistas.unl.edu.ec/index.php/economica/article/view/775
Wang, Q., Lu, M., Bai, Z., & Wang, K (2020). Coronavirus pandemic reduced China’s CO2 emissions in short-term, while stimulus packages may lead to emissions growth in medium-and long-term. Applied Energy, 115735. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2020.115735
World Health Organization (2020). Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic. https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019
World Health Organization (2020a). Novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV). https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019
World Development Indicator (2020). Indicators. Washington DC, 2020. https://data.worldbank.org/indicator
Yorucu, V., & Varoglu, D. E (2020). Empirical investigation of relations between energy consumption, industrial production, CO2 emissions, and economic growth: the case of small island states. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 1-9. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-020-07838-w
Zubair, A. O., Samad, A. R. A., & Dankumo, A. M (2020). Does gross domestic income, trade integration, FDI inflows, GDP, and capital reduces CO2 emissions? An empirical evidence from Nigeria. Current Research in Environmental Sustainability, 2, 100009. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crsust.2020.100009
Downloads
Publicado
Como Citar
Edição
Seção
Licença
Copyright (c) 2021 Revista de Administração da UFSM
Este trabalho está licenciado sob uma licença Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
Autores de artigos publicados pela ReA/UFSM mantêm os direitos autorais de seus trabalhos, licenciando-os sob a licença Creative Commons Attribution CC-BY, que permite que os artigos sejam reutilizados e distribuídos sem restrição, desde que o trabalho original seja corretamente citado.
