Implementation of tool prospective scenarios in a low-income neighborhood located in Passo Fundo, Rio Grande do Sul

Henrique Dias Blois, Ana Claudia Machado Padilha, Janine Fleith de Medeiros, Cassiana Maris Lima Cruz, Juliane de Castilhos Spanholi


Public policies assume strategic aspect when are as a reference and basis for the formulation for other policies or programs. In this context, aiming to reduce future uncertainties of a difficult neighborhood, located in a midsize city of Rio Grande do Sul, the present study uses the methodology of prospective scenarios, proposed by Grumbach (1997), to detect what opportunities can be maximized for that district. Field research, conducted with experts (participants of fieldwork), was analyzed through the Delphi methodology. This methodology allowed the proposition of scenarios that showed events that tend to cause impacts in the neighborhood for the next five years. Results stand out as the five scenarios with higher probability of occurrence are: increase in the number of drug users; stench caused by sewage; diminished opportunities for young people; increase family health program; and decreased physical space for clinics.


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Revista de Administração da UFSM. Brazilian Journal of Management

Universidade Federal de Santa Maria, Santa Maria, Rio Grande do Sul, Brasil, eISSN 1983-4659