Monetary policy rules and wage bargaining structure in a New-Keynesian general equilibrium model with strategic interaction between unions and monetary authority
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5902/2526629285149Palabras clave:
Monetary policy, Inflation, UnemploymentResumen
The objective of this article is to present a New Keynesian general equilibrium model in which the multiplicity of wage and price setters in a framework of strategic interaction between the private sector and monetary authority is a sufficient condition for non-neutrality of the monetary policy rule. In this theoretical framework we can show that (i) strategic interaction between monetary authority and labor unions produce the so-called “Calmfors-Driffil effect” in which different levels of centralization in wage bargains allowed to reach different results in terms of equilibrium unemployment rate; (ii) a higher level of conservatism in the conduction of monetary policy; i.e. higher weight for deviations of price inflation from the target in the monetary policy rule, for a given level of centralization of wage bargaining, produce better outcomes in terms of inflation and unemployment. These results shows that there is a trade-off between centralization of wage bargaining and a tighter monetary policy rule: the more centralized is the wage bargaining structure lower can be the weight of inflation in the monetary policy rule that allowed Central Bank could be to achieve some target level of inflation and unemployment. So, the model proposed here shows that income policies can be, in principle, such effective as monetary policy as a device for improve macroeconomic performance of capitalist economies.
Descargas
Citas
Acocella, N.; Di Bartolomeo G. (2004).” Non-neutrality of monetary policy in policy games”. European Journal of Political Economy. 20: 695-707.
Argandoña, A.; Gámez, C & Mochón, F. (1997). Macroeconomía Avanzada II. McGraw- Hill: Madrid (Spain).
Barro, R.J.; Gordon D.B. (1983). “A positive theory of monetary policy in a natural rate model”. Journal of Political Economy. 91: 589-610.
Blanchard O.; N. Kiyotaki (1987). “Monopolistic Competition and Effects of Aggregate Demand”. American Economic Review vol. 77, pp. 647-666.
Blanchard O.; S. Fischer (1989). Lectures on Macroeconomics. The MIT Press. Cambridge, MA.
Calmfors, L., Driffill, J. (1988). “Bargaining structure, corporatism, and macroeconomic performance”. Economic Policy 6, 14.61.
Calmfors, L. (1994). “Active Labor Market Policy and Unemployment - A Framework for the Analysis of Crucial Design Features”. OECD Economic Studies, 22, 7–47.
Calmfors, L., Lang, H. (1995). “Macroeconomic Effects of Active Labor Market Programs in a Union-Wage-Setting Model”. Economic Journal. 105 (430), 601–619.
Clarida, R; Galí, J; Gertler, M. (2000). “Monetary rules and macroeconomic stability: evidence and some theory”. Quarterly Journal of Economics 115, 147–180.
Cooper, R.W. (1999). Coordination Games: Complementarities and Macroeconomics. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
Cooper, R.W; John, A. (1988). “Coordinating coordination failures in Keynesian models”. Quarterly Journal of Economics 103, 441–461.
Cukierman, A; Lippi F. (1999). “Central bank interdependence, centralization of wage bargaining, inflation and unemployment – Theory and evidence”. European Economic Review. 43: 1395-1434.
Cukierman, A; Lippi F. (2001). “Labor markets and monetary union: a strategic Analysis”. The Economic Journal, 111: 541-561.
Dixit, A; Lambertini, L. (2003). “Interactions of commitment and discretion in monetary and fiscal policies”. American Economic Review. 93, 1522–1542.
Driffill, J. (1984). Macroeconomic Stabilization Policy and Trade Union Behavior as Repeated Game. Stockholm, mimeo.
Driffill, J. (2005). The Centralization of Wage Bargaining Revisited: What Have We Learned? London: Birkbeck College.
Friedman, M. (1968). “The role of monetary policy”. American Economic Review 58, 1–17.
Gali, J. (2008). Monetary Policy, Inflation, and the Business Cycles. Princeton University Press: Princeton.
Guzzo V.; A. Velasco (1999). “The Case for a Populist Central Bank”. European Economic Review, 43, 1317-1344.
Keynes, J.M. (1936). The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money. Macmillan Press: London.
Kydland, F; Prescott, E. (1977). “Rules rather than discretion: The inconsistency of optimal plans”. Journal of Political Economy. 85: 473-491.
Layard, R; Nickell, S; Jackman, R (1991). “Unemployment, Macroeconomic Performance, and the Labor Market”. Oxford University Press. Oxford.
Lippi, F. (2003). “Strategic monetary policy with non-atomistic wage setters”. Review of Economic Studies. 70, 909–919.
Nickell S. (1997). “Unemployment and Labor Market Rigidities: Europe versus North America”. Journal of Economic Perspectives. 11, No. 3, 55-74.
Olson, M. (1965). The Logic of Collective Action. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.
Rogoff, K. (1985). “The Optimal Degree of Commitment to a Monetary Target”. Quarterly Journal of Economic. 100, pp. 1169-1190.
Ross, A.M (1947). “The Trade Union as a Wage-Fixing Institution”. The American Economic Review. Vol. 37, No. 4, September, pp. 566-588.
Rowthorn, R. (1999). “Unemployment, wage bargaining and capital-labor substitution”. Cambridge Journal of Economics. 23: 413-425.
Soskice D.; T. Iversen (1998). “Multiple Wage-Bargaining Systems in the Single European Currency Area”. Oxford Review of Economic Policy. 14, 110-124.
Soskice D.; T. Iversen (2000). “The Non-Neutrality of Monetary Policy with Large Price or Wage Setters”. Quarterly Journal of Economics 115, pp. 265-284.
Svensson, L.; Woodford, M. (2003). “Implementing Optimal Policy Through Inflation-Forecast Targeting”. NBER Working Paper Series 9747, Cambridge (MA).
Takayama, A. (1993). Analytical Methods in Economics. Princeton University Press: Princeton.
Taylor, J. (1999). “A Historical Analysis of Monetary Policy Rules”. in J.B. Taylor, ed., Monetary Policy Rules, Chicago: U. of Chicago Press.
Descargas
Publicado
Cómo citar
Número
Sección
Licencia
Esta obra está bajo una licencia internacional Creative Commons Atribución-NoComercial-CompartirIgual 4.0.
Será exigida de todos os autores de artigos aceitos para publicação na PAP - Práticas de Administração Pública a Declaração de Direitos Autorais, na qual, os autores concedem à revista o direito de primeira publicação, com o trabalho simultaneamente licenciado sob a Creative Commons Atribuição-NãoComercial-CompartilhaIgual 4.0 Internacional.