• José Luis Oreiro Universidade de Brasília
  • Kalinka Martins da Silva Universidade Federal de Goiás



New-Developmentalism, Structuralist, Development Macroeconomics, Real Exchange Rate


The Brazilian New Developmentalist School, also known as "consensus of São Paulo", can be understood as an approach to the deep determinants of economic development in which macroeconomic policy regime has a key role in explaining the long-term growth differentials among countries, notably middle-income countries. The school was originated from the seminal works of Bresser-Pereira (2006, 2007 and 2009) who defined new developmentalism as a set of proposals for institutional reforms and economic policies, whereby the middle-income countries seek to achieve the per-capita income level of developed countries. The first aim of this article is to present the theoretical foundations and the recent developments of the New Developmentalism School. Regarding the theoretical foundations, New Developmentalism is based on the so-called Structuralist Development Macroeconomics, which can be understood as a synthesis between Classical Development Theory, Latin American Structuralism and Post-Keynesian demand-led growth models. One of the most known and controversial features of new developmentalism is the key role of the manufacturing industry and real exchange rate in the process of economic development. The present article presents the state-of-the art reasoning of the New-Developmentalist school about why and how real exchange rate and manufacturing industry matters for long-run growth. Finally, the article discusses the convergences and divergences between New-Developmentalism and Balance of Payments Constrained Growth models, which are up today the major heterodox explanation for uneven development.


Não há dados estatísticos.


BRESSER-PEREIRA, L.C. (2019). “From Classical Developmentalism and Post-Keynesian Macroeconomics to New Developmentalism”. Brazilian Review of Political Economy, Vol. 39, Issue 2, pp. 187-210.

. (2018). Em Busca do Desenvolvimento Perdido: um projeto novo-desenvolvimentista para o Brasil. FGV Editora: Rio de Janeiro.

. (2015). A Construção Política do Brasil: Sociedade, Economia e Estado desde a Independência. Editora 34.

. (2009). Globalização e Competição: Por que alguns países emergentes têm sucesso e outros não? Campus: Rio de Janeiro.

. (2007). Macroeconomia da Estagnação. Editora 34: São Paulo.

. (2006). “O Novo-Desenvolvimentismo e a Ortodoxia Convencional”. São Paulo em Perspectiva, Vol. 20, N.3.

BRESSER-PEREIRA, L.C; OREIRO, J.L; MARCONI, N. (2015). Developmental Macroeconomics: new developmentalism as a growth strategy. Routledge: London.

CARVALHO, F.C. (1992). Mr. Keynes and the Post Keynesians: principles of macroeconomics for a monetary production economy. Edward Elgar: Aldershot.

DAVIDSON, P. (1968). “Money, Portfolio Balance, Capital Accumulation and Economic Growth”. Econometrica, Vol. 36, N.2.

DIAMAND, M. (1972). “La Estructura Productiva Desequilibrada Argentina y el Tipo de Cambio”. Desarrollo Económico Vol. 12 N° 45.

DIXON, R, J; THIRWALL, A.P. (1975). “A Model of Regional Growth Rate Differences on Kaldorian Lines”. Oxford Economic Papers, Vol.27, n.2, pp. 201-214.

FURTADO, C. (1952). “Formação de Capital e Desenvolvimento Econômico”. Revista Brasileira de Economia, Vol. 6, N.3.

GABRIEL L.F., RIBEIRO L.C.S., JAYME JR F.G. AND OREIRO J.L. (2020), “Manufacturing, economic growth, and real exchange

rate: empirical evidence in panel date and input-output multipliers”, PSL Quarterly Review, 73 (292), pp. 51-75]

GLAWE, L; WAGNER, H. (2016). “The Middle-Income Trap: Definitions, Theories and Countries Concerned – a literature survey”. Comparative Economic Studies, Vol. 58, Issue 4, pp. 507-538.

HARROD, R. (1939). “An Essay in Dynamic Theory”. The Economic Journal, vol. 49.

KALDOR, N. (1988). “The Role of Effective Demand in the Short and Long-Run Growth” In: BARRÉRE, A. (org.). The Foundations of Keynesian Analysis. Macmillan Press: London.

. (1976). Strategic Factors in Economic Development. New York State School of Industrial and Labor Relations, Cornell University.

. (1957). “A Model of Economic Growth”. Economic Journal, 67, pp. 591-624.

. (1956). “Alternative Theories of Distribution”. Review of Economic Studies, 23, pp. 83-100.

LEDESMA, M.L. (2002). “Accumulation, Innovation and Catching-up: an extended cumulative growth model”. Cambridge Journal of Economics, Vol. 26, n.2.

LEWIS, W. A. (1954). “Economic Development with Unlimited Supplies of Labour”. The Manchester School, 22, N.2.

MADDISON, A. (1988). “Ultimate and Proximate Growth Causality: a critique to Mancur Olson on the Rise and Decline of Nations”. Scandinavian Economic History Review, N.2.

MAGACHO, G; McCOMBIE, J.S.L. (2017). “A sectoral explanation of per capita income convergence and divergence: estimating Verdoorn´s law for countries at different stages of development”. Cambridge Journal of Economics, Vol. 42, N.4, pp. 917-934.

MARCONI, N; ARAUJO, E.; OREIRO, J.L. (2016). “The exchange rate, income elasticities, and structural change: Theoretical foundations and empirical evidence”. Discussion Paper 012/2016, IE/UFRJ: Rio de Janeiro.

McCOMBIE, J.S.L; DE RIDER, J.R. (1984). “The Verdoorn Law Controversy: some new empirical evidence using U.S. state data”. Oxford Economic Papers, Vol. 36, pp.268-284.

McCOMBIE, J.S.L; ROBERTS, M. (2002). “The Role of the Balance of Payments in Economic Growth” In: SETTERFIELD, M. (org.). The Economics of Demand-Led Growth. Edward Elgar: Aldershot.

OREIRO, J.L. (2020). “New Developmentalism: beyond competitive exchange rate”. Brazilian Journal of Political Economy, vol. 40, nº 2, pp. 238-242.

OREIRO, J.L; MARTINS DA SILVA, K; DÁVILA-FERNANDEZ, M. (2020). “A New Developmentalist Model of Structural Change, Economic Growth and Middle-Income Traps”. Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Vol. 55, pp. 26-38.

OREIRO J.L., MANARIN D’AGOSTINI L.L., GALA P. (2020). ”Deindustrialization, economic complexity and exchange rate overvaluation: the case of Brazil (1998-2017)”, PSL Quarterly Review, 73 (295):313- 341.

MISSIO, F; JAYME, JR. F.G; BRITO, G; OREIRO, J.L. (2017). “Real Exchange Rate and the Endogeneity of Income Elasticities: Theoretical Aspects and Empirical Evidence”. Papers and Proceedings of the 21st FMM Conference: The Crisis of Globalization: Berlin.

OREIRO, J.L. (2018). “Estratégias de Desenvolvimento e a Escola Novo-Desenvolvimentista Brasileira”. Revista Cadernos de Campos, N. 24, pp. 13-41

OREIRO, J.L. (2016a). “Inconsistency and over-determination in balance of payments constrained growth model: a note”. Review of Keynesian Economics, v. 4, p. 193-200

OREIRO, J.L. (2016b). Macroeconomia do Desenvolvimento: uma perspectiva Keynesiana. LTC: Rio de Janeiro.

OREIRO, J. L.; DAGOSTINI, L. ; CARVALHO, L. D. ; VIEIRA, F. (2018). “Revisiting the Growth of Brazilian Economy (1980-2012)”. PSL Quarterly Review, v. 71, p. 203-229, 2018.

OREIRO, J.L; DAGOSTINI, L. (2017). “Macroeconomic Policy Regimes, Real Exchange Rate Over-Valuation and Performance of Brazilian Economy (2003-2015)”. Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, v. 40, p. 27-42.

PALLEY, T. (2003). “Pitfalls in the Theory of Growth: An Application to the Balance of Payments Constrained Growth Model,” Review of Political Economy, 15, 75 - 84

PARK, M.S. (2000). “Autonomous Demand and the Warranted Rate of Growth”. Contributions to Political Economy, Volume 19, Issue 1, pp.1-18.

PREBISCH, R. (1950). The Economic Development of Latin America and Its Principal Problems. New York: United Nations.

POPPER, K. R. (1972) Conjecturas e refutações. Brasília: UNB.

RODRIGUEZ, O. (2009). O Estruturalismo Latino-Americano. Civilização Brasileira: Rio de Janeiro.

RODRIK, D. (2016). Premature deindustrialization. Journal of Economic Growth. 21(1): 1–33.

. (2009). Growth after the crisis. Cambridge, MA.: Harvard Kennedy School.

ROMERO, J.P; BRITTO, G. (2017). “Increasing returns to scale, technological catch-up and research intensity: endogenizing the Verdoorn coefficient”. Cambridge Journal of Economics, Vol. 41, N.2, pp.391-412.

ROS, J. (2013). Rethinking Economic Development, Growth and Institutions. Oxford University Press: Oxford.

ROSTOW, W.W. (1956). “The Take-off into Self-Sustained Growth”. The Economic Journal, Vol. 66, Issue 261, pp. 25-48.

SETTERFIELD, M. (1997). Rapid Growth and Relative Decline: modelling macroeconomic dynamics with hysteresis. London: Macmillan.

SZIRMAI, A. (2012). Industrialization as an engine of growth in developing countries, 1950-2005. Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, 23: 406–420.

THIRLWALL, A. P. (2002). The Nature of Economic Growth. Edward Elgar: Aldershot.

. (1997). “Reflections on the Concept of Balance-of-Payments-Constrained Growth Rates”. Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Vol. 19, N.3.

. (1979). “The Balance of Payments Constraint as a explanation of international growth rate differences”. Banca Nazionale Del Lavoro Quarterly Review, 128, pp. 45-53.

THIRWALL, A.P; DIXON, R.J. (1979). “A Model of Export-Led Growth with a Balance of Payments Constraint” In: Bowers, J.K. (ed.). Inflation, Development and Integration: essays in honour of A.J. Brown. Leeds University Press: Leeds.

TREGENNA, F. (2009). “Characterizing deindustrialization: An analysis of changes in manufacturing employment and output internationally”. Cambridge Journal of Economics, 33: 433–466.



Como Citar