Universidade Federal de Santa Maria
Ci. e Nat., Santa Maria v.42, e107, 2020
DOI:10.5902/2179460X 42189
ISSN 2179-460X
Received: 30/01/2020 Accepted: 18/02/2020 Published: 23/12/2020
Meteorologia
Climatological analysis of persistent, extreme and broad rainfall cases between 1986-2016 in Santa Catarina, Brasil
Raidel Báez PrietoI
Francisco Henrique de OliveiraII
Mateus da Silva TeixeiraIII
I Universidade do Estado de Santa Catarina, Florianópolis, SC, Brasil - raidelbp@gmail.com
II Universidade do Estado de Santa Catarina, Florianópolis, SC, Brasil - chico.udesc@gmail.com
III Universidade Federal de Pelotas, Pelotas, RS, Brasil - mateusstex@gmail.com
Abstract
In a better qualified society, in search of sustainable cities, it is important to study and know the extreme and recurrent natural phenomena. Extreme rain, as an example of atmospheric phenomena, causes several and negative impacts on Society, leaving clear signs of the areas most susceptible to disasters. Considering researchs of climatology in Santa Catarina State (SC), as well as the use of applied statistics, the main objective in this research is to study the extreme events of persistent and broad rainfall in the cities of SC between 1986-2016. The results show that the regions that most suffer with high frequency and intensity of this type of phenomenon are more on the coast like Florianópolis and Itajaí. In the other hand, in the last 30 years, the west cities of SC present a decrease in the trend, in the quantity of events and of your total accumulated.
Keywords: applied statistics; extreme rainfall climatology; sustainable development
1 Introduction
On the rise, the extreme meteorological phenomena of precipitation have been manifesting themselves as part of atmospheric variations, related to climate variability (MARENGO et al., 2007; REBOITA et al., 2010; TEDESCHI et al., 2014). According to the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction (2015-2030), each region of the planet has distinct geographic characteristics and is constantly changing in the face of climatic variability, greatly influencing the types of rain and their persistence differentially.
In Brazil, as well as in many other countries, each year several environmental disasters are recorded at different times of the year (GRIMM, 2009), for which the main cause is attributed, mainly, to meteorological phenomena or climatic extremes such as intense rains, persistent rains, droughts and intense winds. In the southern region of Brazil, the state of Santa Catarina (SC) has a strong role in the economy with a large part of its activity based on agriculture and livestock.
In SC there is a high frequency in the number of natural disasters, recorded between 1980-2000, mainly in the summer and winter. In summary, there were a total of 1299 records of the occurrence of gradual floods, 555 sudden floods, 140 landslides, 492 droughts, 342 hail, 502 gales and 43 cases of tornadoes (HERRMANN & MENDONÇA, 2007).
According to the SC Disaster Atlas, presented by Herrmann (2001) and later by the University Center for Studies and Research on Disasters (CEPED, 2013), during the period from 1991 to 2012, there were records of disasters related mainly to droughts; floods; runoff; flooding; mass movements; erosions; hail; frosts; fires; tornadoes and gales, most of which are quite recurring natural events. There are records of more than 12 million people damaged in that period, with 217 deaths, 8,571 injured, 5,751 sick, 126,877 homeless, 558,108 displaced and 1,230 missing.
Nunes e da Silva (2013), using regional climate modeling, studied the East and North of the state of SC, the frequency of natural disasters caused by extreme precipitation events in the last 60 years. The authors declare that the greatest number of extreme rainfall events, in general, has occurred in summer and autumn, and those of greatest persistence in winter, with a positive linear trend that indicates an increase in the number of future events.
Cardoso (2017) studied extreme precipitation events in southern Brazil with data from the past 37 years noting that the most intense and persistent events occur mainly during the summer. This work summarizes that, the main atmospheric factors / ingredients for the occurrence of extreme and wide-ranging events are the availability of humidity in the lower layers of the troposphere added to the high-level jet and a trough that remains at medium levels. There is a relationship between the most intense events that coincide with years of the El Niño Forte event, and that during years of neutrality of this phenomenon, the most persistent cases occur in winter and spring days. These more persistent cases have spatial preference over the northern and southern regions of the state of SC, as well as in the metropolitan region of Florianópolis (state capital).
2 Objective
From the bibliographic summary previously consulted, the main objective in this research is to study the extreme events of persistent and broad rainfall in the cities of Santa Catarina State between 1986-2016.
3 Methodology
This study focuses on climatic events that last for long periods (persistent rains). Extreme rainfall events are defined using quantile statistical techniques, applied to rain data collected by meteorological stations in the cities of the state of SC. The most intense cases were selected based on their persistence in days, accumulated extremes and wide spatial coverage.
The daily precipitation data used were from the Meteorological Database for Teaching and Research, for 31 years of observation (1986-2016), available by the National Institute of Meteorology - INMET and by the Environmental Resources and Hydrometeorology Information Center of SC (EPAGRI-CIRAM). These data are taken from the most significant conventional stations in the state of SC and with the shortest period of missing days.
In Figure 1, is presented the respective geographical location of conventional stations with the collection of meteorological data found in SC, which were taken as references for this study.
Figure 1 - Representation of the 14 meteorological stations on the SC map, with precipitation data (1986-2016) that are used in the work. On the lower left side, the location of SC stands out within Brazil
Source: Author, 2019
Following the methodology described by Prieto (2016) and Teixeira e Prieto (2019), to obtain the first characteristic of rain, in each of the meteorological stations, days with rain greater than 1 mm were counted, and these data were organized and grouped in consecutive days of rain. A count of this sequence of days is obtained, thus generating a set of periods of continuous rain, which were called cases of persistent rain. Thus, a database is obtained with the periods or cases of rain and its accumulated during the 31 years of study. Periods with a number of days greater than the 0.9 quantile of persistent cases were selected.
After filtering the cases for the second characteristic of rain, the average of monthly and annual accumulated rain for the whole of Brazil (1981-2010), available on the INMET website, is analyzed: http://www.inmet.gov.br/portal/index.php?r=clima/normaisClimatologicas, and the monthly clipping for the state of SC, available on the EPAGRI-CIRAM website: http://ciram.epagri.sc.gov.br/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=141&Itemid.
From the monthly climatological values in each of the meteorological stations of the study, an average value of seasonal rain is defined, established as summer (January, February and March), autumn (April, May, June), winter (July, August and September) and spring (October, November and December). The extreme persistence cases initially obtained were grouped within these seasons. From some filter tests in the data series and the frequency analyzed in them, the cases whose accumulation surpassed 50% of the seasonal average in their meteorological station were selected, being called Cases of Extreme Persistent Rain.
Doing the second filtering, the cases of the different meteorological stations are grouped by similarity on the dates on which they occurred, by joining them, you get cases of greater persistence in days and with greater accumulations of rain, managing to account for which stations of SC these cases remained and were moving.
With the third and latter characteristic of rain, was analyzed at length of the phenomenon and its geographical proximity to the affected cities. Thus, the cases must cover at least 30% of the stations under analysis in this study, more than 4 meteorological stations.
In other words, the range of cases will be defined as the simultaneity of having rain during the same date, with the characteristics of persistence and intensity mentioned above, in 4 or more meteorological stations, discarding cases that do not exceed this filter. Thus, during the 31 years of study, the Persistent, Extreme and Broad Rainfall Cases (PEBRC) were obtained, with greater scope, intensity and duration in the region that took place.
The PEBRC treated in this study are not being selected based on the impact, but due to the characteristics of the event itself: duration, intensity and spatial scope, since the impact itself is more difficult to quantify and to make comparisons between an occurrence and other.
4 Results and Discussion
The PEBRC is identified and selected from 1986 to 2016 in SC according to the three characteristics of rain previously explained in the methodology. Most of the cases, approximately 500, were concentrated within a period of 1 to 3 days in each season analyzed separately, in this way, the 0.90 percentile successfully filtered the first characteristic of the rain, defining as minimum rain persistence, the cases being more than five days old, minimum rain persistence. Finally, 74 cases of persistent, extreme and broad rainfall are well distributed throughout the state (74 PEBRC).
The PEBRC obtained were summarized in chronological order in Table 1 and represented seasonally by Figure 2, resulting in a number of 26 cases during the summer, 15 cases for the fall, 17 cases in the winter and 16 cases in the spring. Unlike the results obtained by Teixeira e Prieto (2019) for RS, it results that, during the summer season, the highest number of PEBRC happens, a result that coincides with Nunes e Da Silva (2013).
According to the statistical average of days and accumulated rain in the period in the cities, the most persistent and intense cases correspond first to autumn and then to summer, Figure 2 and Table 1, results that coincide with the study by Cardoso (2017). The most persistent cases in summer days and those with the highest average accumulation in autumn are listed. The average coverage of the cases was 7 cities for the summer, autumn and spring, and the maximum value of the average coverage was 8 cities reached in the winter.
Table 1- PEBRC in chronological order with its persistence (days), average accumulated (mm) and the broad rainfall (Meteorological Stations).
|
PEBRC |
Date |
Persistent Days |
Average Accumulated (mm) |
Meteorological Stations |
|
1 |
07-19/01/1987 |
12 |
154,00 |
6 |
|
2 |
12-21/10/1987 |
9 |
138,11 |
8 |
|
3 |
21/01-04/02/1989 |
14 |
159,53 |
11 |
|
4 |
14/02-03/03/1989 |
17 |
129,62 |
5 |
|
5 |
29/04-08/05/1989 |
9 |
143,48 |
5 |
|
6 |
07-16/09/1989 |
9 |
143,83 |
6 |
|
7 |
26/12/1889-04/01/1990 |
9 |
100,10 |
4 |
|
8 |
01-24/01/1990 |
23 |
157,08 |
9 |
|
9 |
28/05-07/06/1990 |
10 |
336,65 |
11 |
|
10 |
16-23/07/1990 |
7 |
123,84 |
8 |
|
11 |
18-24/06/1991 |
6 |
146,56 |
5 |
|
12 |
06-16/08/1991 |
10 |
134,85 |
6 |
|
13 |
25/10-06/11/1991 |
12 |
111,80 |
5 |
|
14 |
21-28/12/1991 |
7 |
116,56 |
8 |
|
15 |
22/01-03/02/1992 |
12 |
116,50 |
5 |
|
16 |
26/05-02/06/1992 |
7 |
211,97 |
12 |
|
17 |
27/06-03/07/1992 |
6 |
181,00 |
11 |
|
18 |
26/01-06/02/1993 |
11 |
117,13 |
4 |
|
19 |
19/09-06/10/1993 |
17 |
152,59 |
14 |
|
20 |
05-16/02/1994 |
11 |
118,47 |
6 |
|
21 |
17-28/02/1994 |
11 |
137,90 |
6 |
|
22 |
10-17/05/1994 |
7 |
160,85 |
4 |
|
23 |
02-09/07/1994 |
7 |
112,18 |
6 |
|
24 |
18-27/10/1994 |
9 |
166,17 |
7 |
|
25 |
05-11/11/1994 |
6 |
149,18 |
4 |
|
26 |
27/12/1994-04/01/1995 |
8 |
151,00 |
6 |
|
27 |
06-24/01/1995 |
18 |
169,35 |
10 |
|
28 |
22/09-03/10/1995 |
11 |
196,51 |
7 |
|
29 |
13/01-02/02/1996 |
20 |
206,60 |
7 |
|
30 |
16-22/06/1996 |
6 |
108,20 |
6 |
|
31 |
23-30/09/1996 |
7 |
105,49 |
10 |
|
32 |
17/01-06/02/1997 |
20 |
202,02 |
13 |
|
33 |
17-23/07/1997 |
6 |
111,24 |
7 |
|
34 |
06-17/10/1997 |
11 |
175,45 |
12 |
|
35 |
29/10-08/11/1997 |
10 |
168,05 |
4 |
|
36 |
27/01-09/02/1998 |
13 |
195,15 |
10 |
|
37 |
13-18/05/1998 |
5 |
124,98 |
5 |
|
38 |
16-26/01/1999 |
10 |
176,75 |
4 |
|
39 |
11-20/01/2000 |
9 |
119,08 |
4 |
|
40 |
10-21/09/2000 |
11 |
208,36 |
11 |
|
41 |
12-19/10/2000 |
7 |
126,28 |
8 |
|
42 |
27/01-07/02/2001 |
11 |
118,42 |
5 |
|
43 |
26/09-05/10/2001 |
9 |
171,83 |
7 |
|
44 |
07-17/06/2002 |
10 |
180,43 |
4 |
|
45 |
03-11/06/2003 |
8 |
98,14 |
7 |
|
46 |
30/03-07/04/2005 |
8 |
182,33 |
4 |
|
47 |
12-19/06/2005 |
7 |
206,48 |
8 |
|
48 |
28/10-04/11/2007 |
7 |
127,02 |
5 |
|
49 |
23/01-05/02/2008 |
13 |
210,72 |
5 |
|
50 |
14-23/10/2008 |
9 |
121,67 |
7 |
|
51 |
23-28/10/2008 |
5 |
128,16 |
5 |
|
52 |
10/11-01/12/2008 |
21 |
248,06 |
8 |
|
53 |
06-13/07/2009 |
7 |
107,51 |
7 |
|
54 |
07-15/09/2009 |
8 |
167,27 |
9 |
|
55 |
05-15/01/2010 |
10 |
143,58 |
4 |
|
56 |
21-31/03/2010 |
10 |
139,01 |
8 |
|
57 |
21-28/04/2010 |
7 |
224,12 |
11 |
|
58 |
20-25/09/2010 |
5 |
99,68 |
4 |
|
59 |
15-31/01/2011 |
16 |
149,01 |
5 |
|
60 |
05/02-01/03/2011 |
24 |
140,50 |
10 |
|
61 |
25/03-03/04/2011 |
9 |
154,05 |
8 |
|
62 |
29/06-05/07/2011 |
6 |
105,40 |
5 |
|
63 |
19-24/07/2013 |
5 |
116,77 |
7 |
|
64 |
16-25/09/2013 |
9 |
167,91 |
8 |
|
65 |
08-18/01/2014 |
10 |
159,90 |
4 |
|
66 |
08-23/03/2014 |
15 |
124,90 |
4 |
|
67 |
05-11/06/2014 |
6 |
150,50 |
7 |
|
68 |
23/06-01/07/2014 |
8 |
283,12 |
10 |
|
69 |
24/09-02/10/2014 |
8 |
189,44 |
8 |
|
70 |
09-23/01/2015 |
14 |
121,98 |
5 |
|
71 |
07-18/07/2015 |
11 |
193,83 |
7 |
|
72 |
06-16/10/2015 |
10 |
146,55 |
8 |
|
73 |
16-22/10/2016 |
6 |
115,90 |
5 |
|
74 |
30/01-09/02/2016 |
10 |
153,28 |
4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Figure 2 - Histogram of PEBRC for the seasons of the year
A representation of the PEBRC is made in Figure 3, where most of the cases took place with persistent periods of rain between 5 to 11 days and with average accumulations of up to 230mm. In the same Figure 3, it is observed that there is a case with up to 25 days with rain in the study region and another case with average accumulations of up to 350 mm of rain. These cases are the most extreme individually for further study later. Figure 4 shows the cases in greater detail by season, confirming that the cases preference the summer and autumn.
Figure 3 - Representation of the PEBRC. Y axes refers to the average accumulated rain (mm) in the cases (with boxplot and histogram); X axes refers to the duration of cases in days (with boxplot and histogram)
Figure 4 - PEBRC representation by season. Y axes refers to the average accumulated rain (mm) in the cases (with boxplot and histogram); X axes refers to the duration of cases in days (with boxplot and histogram)
A Figure 5 show, for decades the trend of cases at meteorological stations has been increasing in most stations. There is a growing trend towards cities such as Indaial, Florianópolis and Urussanga, in addition to others where their decline has remained constant, such as São Miguel do Oeste, Chapecó and Campos Novos. Figure 6 show the distribution of the PEBRC in each of the Meteorological stations, detailing that, as mentioned before, the summer season has the highest number of cases. The stations of São Miguel do Oeste, Major Viera and Florianópolis, remained homogeneous in terms of their seasonal distribution, however in the stations more in the center of the state such as Caçador, Ponte Serrada, Videira, Lages and Ituporanga it is observed how the values are higher in the summer and winter when compared to other seasons. In the summer season, the largest periods of persistent rains occur, which may be associated with Mesoscale Convective System (MCS), developed by larger scale mechanisms/systems, which should be analyzed in future studies. This MCS are related to daytime heating and the moisture flow that transports the JBN that enters the SC region, exactly through the municipalities of the center that showed contrasts in the seasonal distribution of PEBRC. In winter, the cold fronts are semi-stationary, bringing the largest cases to coastal municipalities, where a positive trend of the PEBRC was observed. In the stations of Itajaí and Urussanga, the greatest seasonal contrasts of rain are observed, Figure 6, this may be due to the change in relief and the contrast between meteorological phenomena of tropical and extratropical latitudes, as previously mentioned by Reboita et al. (2010).
Figure 5 - Trend of cases by meteorological station (1986-2016).
Figura 6 - Seasonal trend of cases by meteorological station (1986-2016).
A separation of persistent cases is represented by Figure 7. With this separation, a better seasonal analysis will be obtained in the next stages of this study, for indicating the meteorological conditions that caused the cases, now grouped in days. Events of 5 - 9 and 10 -14 days duration (up to 2 weeks) were more common during the study period. Thus, after two weeks, a few most prolonged events are observed, obtaining cases of up to 3 weeks. As was analyzed by Teixeira e Prieto (2019), it is logical to expect this result, based on the statistical characteristic of rain. It is more common to have events with shorter durations, and as you would expect, the rarest events are those that last for many more days.
Figura 7 - Seasonal frequency of periods of the PEBRC, according to its duration in days.
Some of the PEBRC obtained are punctually highlighted in the cities where they happened and coincide with the great historical cases of intense / extreme rainfall in SC, known for the great floods they caused. The cases of November 1991, February 1994, February 2001, January 2008, November 2008, January 2011, reached accumulations close to 400 mm during their first 5 days of persistent rainfall on the north coast of SC, coinciding with the references from studies by Herrmann, Mendonça e Campos (1993) and Silveira et al. (2016). It is worth noting that the PEBRC does not include all cases of extreme rainfall in SC, for example, a case that does not comply with the methodology discussed here was the famous case of December 1995 and that of September 2011 in Itajaí, so they do not appear.
Within the PEBRC, the following cases stand out due to the greater rain accumulations that took place in some cities:
-Itajaí, during January 1995, with up to 275 mm of rain, which was broad in 10 cities in SC;
-Urussanga, from mid-January to early February 1996, with up to 352 mm of rain, which was broad in 7 cities in SC;
- Florianópolis, Ponte Serrada and Lages; from mid-January to early February 1997, with up to 370 mm of rain, which was extensive in 13 cities in SC;
- Itajaí; during January 1999, with up to 371 mm of rain, which was broad in 4 cities in SC;
- Ponte Serrada and Campos Novos; from the end of January to the beginning of February 1998, with up to 340 mm of rain, which was broad in 10 cities in SC;
- Florianópolis; from the end of January to the beginning of February 2008, with up to 407 mm of rain, which was broad in 5 cities in SC;
- Urussanga; during the second half of January 2011, with up to 273 mm of rain, which was broad in 5 cities in SC;
- Indaial; during February and early March 2011, with up to 407 mm of rain, which was broad in 10 cities in SC;
- Caçador, São Miguel do Oeste, Chapeco, Ponte Serrada, Ituporanga, Campos Novos; from late May to early June 1990, with up to 550 mm of rain, which was broad in 11 cities in SC;
- Urussanga; during May 1994, with up to 295 mm of rain, which was broad in 4 cities in SC;
- São Miguel do Oeste; during June 2005, with up to 375 mm of rain, which was broad in 8 cities in SC;
-Videira and Sawed Bridge; during April 2005, with up to 332 mm of rain, which was broad in 11 cities in SC;
- São Joaquim, São Miguel do Oeste, Chapecó, Ponte Serrada, Major Vieira; Videira during late June and early July 2014, with up to 450 mm of rain, which was broad in 10 cities in SC;
- São Miguel do Oeste, Chapecó; during July 2015, with up to 315.8 mm rain, which was broad in 7 cities in SC;
- São Miguel de Oeste; during late September to early October 1995, with up to 272 mm of rain, which was broad in 7 cities in SC;
-Chapecó and Videira; during September 2000, with up to 285 mm of rain, which was broad in 11 cities in SC;
- Ponte Serrada; during September until early October 2014, with up to 275 mm of rain, which was broad in 8 cities in SC;
-Florianópolis, Itajaí and Indaial; during November until the beginning of December 2008, with up to 528 mm of rain, which was broad in 8 cities in SC;
- Videira; during late December 1994 until early January 1995, with up to 268.6 mm of rain, which was broad in 6 cities in SC.
5 Conclusions
The results presented show that the majority of the PEBRC, summarized in Table 1, coincide with cases of historical damage caused by the rains, which occasionally occurred in some cities on the coast of Santa Catarina, such as Itajaí and Florianópolis.
The SC's location and the meteorological systems that maintained the cases during the summer and spring of the years 1991, 1994, 2001, 2008 and 2011, make the state in a susceptible region to extreme rain events with numerous historical damages.
In the summer season, the greatest number of PEBRC occurs, this result coincides with Nunes e Da Silva (2013), however, these authors relate the most extreme and persistent cases in winter, and the study found that the greatest persistence in days and extreme accumulated values was distributed in summer and autumn, coinciding this time with Cardoso (2017).
In the same way that Cardoso (2017) mentions in his work, during the period of this study, persistent events prefer neutral conditions of the ENOS event (Niño or Niña). In particular, the years 2008 and 2011 stand out for the great accumulations obtained in the entire region of SC, as well as for the great records of landslides, economic losses and human lives that happened.
The cases obtained in this work prefer acting on the east coast of SC, except for some specific cases that occurred in the center of the state. This preference of cases that tends to happen more on the east coast of the region under study, coincides with the results obtained by Teixeira and Prieto (2019). Undoubtedly, the geographical units of Antas and Chapecó, which represent western SC, show a decrease in the trend and number of PEBRC, as well as in their total accumulated rain. It should be noted that in this region during the autumn of the last 31 years, a considerable total accumulated rain of the PEBRC was concentrated, between 1700 and 2300 mm.
Considering the broad behavior of the PEBRC, a negative trend is observed in the municipalities of western Santa Catarina, however, in the center and on the coast of the state, a positive trend, accelerated and alarming in most seasons, is happening, which coincides with the climatology references of the region summarized by Herrmann; Mendonça and Campos (1993); Herrmann, (2001) and Herrmann and Mendonça (2007). The north coast and midwest regions of SC seem to be the most susceptible to the characteristics of the PEBRC. It conforms just as historically these regions are the ones that suffer most from the damages and losses that the rains cause.
Acknowledgments
Acknowledgments to reviewers, collaborators and to Coordination for the Improvement of Higher Education Personnel (CAPES) for the economic support.
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